Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ayedire, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ayedire has 20,638 buildings with a viable rooftop and 450 MWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

20,638

Usable roof area

2 km²

450 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.6bn/yr

19.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ayedire

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦893bn

NPV₦140bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.92 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.7 MWp

Capex₦63.2bn

Year-one energy value₦57bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.61tn

NPV₦446bn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ayedire's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦57bn/yr
NPV: ₦446bn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ayedire pays back quickly

Of the 19,946 buildings in Ayedire with a modelled payback, 58.4% pay back inside five years and 15.5% inside three.

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How much of Ayedire's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ayedire consume 29.8 GWh/yr but want 39.7 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ayedire

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ayedire actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 19,946 buildings with a modelled result out of 20,638 in Ayedire. 15,006 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,089 (15%)

Under 5 years11,655 (58%)

Under 7 years14,986 (75%)

Under 10 years16,950 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%16,699 (81%)

Above 15%15,006 (73%)

Above 20%12,587 (61%)

Above 25%7,813 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

30.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.92 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

230k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ayedire.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ayedire

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	10,135	2,033	₦2.67bn	₦2.67bn	23%	4.4 yr
D	6,924	639	₦4.06bn	₦3.58bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	3,579	458	₦13.9bn	₦11.6bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,028	2,726	₦15.9bn	₦13.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	215	145	₦3.5bn	₦3.46bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	202	133	₦569m	₦569m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	176	116	₦665m	₦660m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	7	5	₦5.54m	₦5.47m	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	7	3	₦5.86m	₦5.86m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	2	1	₦861k	₦861k	33%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦3.59m	₦3.59m	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	8,124	1,177	₦4.96bn	₦4.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	4,502	564	₦117m	₦109m	7%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	3,926	513	₦728m	₦726m	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	2,543	364	₦139m	₦139m	15%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,454	456	₦7.41bn	₦6.09bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	89	56	₦7.28bn	₦6.66bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	9,302	1,275	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban Centre	5,372	925	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,425	534	₦13.6bn	₦11.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	914	287	₦2.33bn	₦2.33bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	625	109	₦1.41bn	₦1.03bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	6,866	475	₦399m	₦399m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential	4,414	1,073	₦14.5bn	₦11.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	4,127	645	₦777m	₦774m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	2,948	431	₦67.1m	₦67.1m	9%	13.4 yr
Apartment	1,178	71	₦70.8m	₦70.8m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	450	23	₦24.7m	₦24.7m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	231	157	₦3.26bn	₦3.22bn	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial Site	130	88	₦619m	₦614m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	59	41	₦218m	₦218m	67%	1.6 yr
School	51	35	₦187m	₦187m	59%	1.9 yr
Agricultural	45	8	₦9.19m	₦9.19m	23%	4.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	30	20	₦208m	₦202m	39%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	20,638	3,130	₦20.6bn	₦17.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	20,238	2,863	₦16.5bn	₦13.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	391	261	₦4.17bn	₦4.12bn	51%	2.1 yr
SME High	9	6	₦9.3m	₦9.22m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	8,002	545	₦667m	₦666m
3.0	7,490	1,711	₦19bn	₦16.2bn
0.0	2,992	439	₦76.3m	₦76.3m
2.0	1,783	368	₦823m	₦718m
1.0	369	66	₦113m	₦112m
5.0	2	1	₦7.25m	₦7.25m