Osun State

Rooftop solar in Atakunmosa West, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Atakunmosa West has 24,124 buildings with a viable rooftop and 514 MWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

24,124

Usable roof area

2.29 km²

514 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.9bn/yr

11.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Atakunmosa West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦629bn

NPV₦94.8bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.67 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity60.6 MWp

Capex₦59.8bn

Year-one energy value₦51.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.44tn

NPV₦411bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Atakunmosa West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 60.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦59.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦51.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦411bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Atakunmosa West pays back quickly

Of the 23,438 buildings in Atakunmosa West with a modelled payback, 59.6% pay back inside five years and 18.6% inside three.

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How much of Atakunmosa West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Atakunmosa West consume 19.5 GWh/yr but want 29.1 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Atakunmosa West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Atakunmosa West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 23,438 buildings with a modelled result out of 24,124 in Atakunmosa West. 17,431 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,365 (19%)

Under 5 years13,965 (60%)

Under 7 years17,404 (74%)

Under 10 years19,585 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,211 (80%)

Above 15%17,431 (72%)

Above 20%15,013 (62%)

Above 25%9,062 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

21.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.66 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.67 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

136k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Atakunmosa West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Atakunmosa West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	17,429	3,429	₦9.21bn	₦9.08bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	3,495	642	₦1.86bn	₦1.85bn	23%	4.4 yr
B	1,835	61	₦180m	₦179m	25%	4.4 yr
C	1,365	235	₦648m	₦648m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	22,045	3,415	₦7.26bn	₦7.19bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,029	470	₦2.98bn	₦2.96bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	607	151	₦50.2m	₦50.2m	31%	3.4 yr
Anchor	253	202	₦1.3bn	₦1.27bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	176	115	₦271m	₦271m	51%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	11	11	₦12.6m	₦12.6m	61%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	3	3	₦10.1m	₦10.1m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,141	1,789	₦4.74bn	₦4.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	5,551	762	₦637m	₦622m	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	4,497	717	₦132m	₦130m	7%	13.6 yr
30 50m2	2,912	461	₦220m	₦159m	11%	8.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,997	630	₦5.58bn	₦5.55bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	26	8	₦576m	₦575m	25%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	7,716	593	₦2.75bn	₦2.73bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	7,196	2,072	₦4.95bn	₦4.85bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,011	1,201	₦3.08bn	₦3.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	2,749	110	₦354m	₦353m	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,452	391	₦767m	₦767m	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	8,860	1,522	₦6.23bn	₦6.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	7,567	973	₦720m	₦645m	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	4,075	657	₦125m	₦125m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Formal	761	146	₦94.1m	₦94.1m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	607	151	₦50.2m	₦50.2m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	599	84	₦72.7m	₦72.7m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	416	117	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	392	185	₦1.09bn	₦1.07bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	228	171	₦795m	₦795m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	100	66	₦174m	₦173m	61%	1.6 yr
Apartment	78	11	₦7.86m	₦7.86m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	73	20	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	25%	4.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	24,124	4,367	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	22,891	3,745	₦7.98bn	₦7.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	820	314	₦2.37bn	₦2.34bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	413	308	₦1.55bn	₦1.52bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,939	2,326	₦7.98bn	₦7.96bn
2.0	4,444	492	₦536m	₦474m
0.0	4,032	621	₦110m	₦110m
4.0	1,719	600	₦1.95bn	₦1.9bn
1.0	1,606	173	₦83.7m	₦83.7m
5.0	332	121	₦661m	₦661m
6.0	52	34	₦568m	₦568m