Osun State

Rooftop solar in Atakunmosa East, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Atakunmosa East has 13,837 buildings with a viable rooftop and 245 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦3.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

13,837

Usable roof area

1.09 km²

245 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦3.3bn/yr

3.54 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Atakunmosa East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.29bn

Lifetime cash saved₦176bn

NPV₦26.4bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy3.48 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity21.1 MWp

Capex₦21.3bn

Year-one energy value₦18.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦865bn

NPV₦145bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Atakunmosa East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 21.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦21.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦18.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦145bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Atakunmosa East pays back quickly

Of the 13,401 buildings in Atakunmosa East with a modelled payback, 40.8% pay back inside five years and 9.7% inside three.

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How much of Atakunmosa East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Atakunmosa East consume 5.79 GWh/yr but want 9.27 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Atakunmosa East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Atakunmosa East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 13,401 buildings with a modelled result out of 13,837 in Atakunmosa East. 8,241 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,303 (10%)

Under 5 years5,472 (41%)

Under 7 years8,218 (61%)

Under 10 years10,274 (77%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%9,938 (72%)

Above 15%8,241 (60%)

Above 20%6,214 (45%)

Above 25%2,479 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

6.08 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.45 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

3.48 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

52.5k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Atakunmosa East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Atakunmosa East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	9,134	953	₦2.05bn	₦2.03bn	17%	6.1 yr
D	3,619	286	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	1,051	48	₦106m	₦106m	19%	5.6 yr
B	29	0	₦2.58m	₦2.58m	25%	4.4 yr
A	4	0	₦4.24k	₦4.24k	-1%	17.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	13,357	953	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	17%	5.9 yr
Anchor	204	151	₦1.33bn	₦1.31bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	177	122	₦333m	₦333m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	91	54	₦154m	₦154m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	6	5	₦11.7m	₦11.7m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	2	2	₦7.95m	₦7.95m	39%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	4,685	560	₦1.13bn	₦1.12bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	4,565	243	₦198m	₦198m	19%	5.6 yr
Under 30m2	2,133	159	₦27.3m	₦27.3m	5%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	1,956	144	₦56.6m	₦56.6m	9%	12.6 yr
250 1000m2	484	173	₦1.24bn	₦1.22bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	14	8	₦658m	₦658m	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	6,387	360	₦884m	₦884m	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	4,305	409	₦700m	₦700m	13%	7.4 yr
Dense Urban	2,449	466	₦1.6bn	₦1.59bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	696	52	₦115m	₦115m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	5,971	382	₦203m	₦203m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential	4,083	427	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	2,462	134	₦30.4m	₦30.4m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Formal	655	0	₦7.47m	₦7.47m	13%	6.9 yr
Institutional	181	124	₦899m	₦899m	53%	1.9 yr
Apartment	73	0	₦667k	₦667k	17%	6.1 yr
Duplex	63	0	₦753k	₦753k	11%	9.1 yr
Industrial Site	61	35	₦111m	₦111m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	60	48	₦227m	₦227m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	35	₦315m	₦312m	49%	2.1 yr
Clinic	41	31	₦149m	₦135m	49%	2.1 yr
School	40	29	₦53.9m	₦53.9m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	13,837	1,287	₦3.3bn	₦3.29bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	13,535	1,077	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn	19%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	295	205	₦1.49bn	₦1.47bn	53%	1.9 yr
SME High	7	5	₦11.7m	₦11.7m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,321	831	₦2.93bn	₦2.91bn
2.0	3,429	264	₦231m	₦231m
0.0	2,407	119	₦23.1m	₦23.1m
1.0	899	63	₦30.8m	₦30.8m
4.0	779	9	₦67.9m	₦67.9m
5.0	2	1	₦21.8m	₦21.8m