Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Imo State: buildings, spend and payback

1,505,580 buildings in Imo State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦940bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 48% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,505,580

Usable roof area

160 km²

35.9 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦940bn/yr

862 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Imo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦940bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦926bn

Lifetime cash saved₦48.2tn

NPV₦7.41tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy770 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity3.38 GWp

Capex₦3.36tn

Year-one energy value₦2.72tn

Lifetime energy value₦129tn

NPV₦21.4tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Imo State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 3.38 GWp
Capital cost: ₦3.36tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.72tn/yr
NPV: ₦21.4tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Imo State pays back quickly

Of the 1,493,062 buildings in Imo State with a modelled payback, 71.8% pay back inside five years and 45.3% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

71.8%

Payback under 3 years

45.3%

IRR above 20%

74.6%

Under 3 years · 45%3 – 5 years · 26%5 – 7 years · 12%7 – 10 years · 8%Over 10 years · 9%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Imo State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Imo State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Imo State consume 1.46 TWh/yr but want 2.23 TWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 66%Suppressed · 34%

Energy wanted

2.23 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.46 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

770 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Imo State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,493,062 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,505,580 in Imo State. 1,246,734 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years676,953 (45%)

Under 5 years1,072,373 (72%)

Under 7 years1,245,100 (83%)

Under 10 years1,359,322 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,336,484 (89%)

Above 15%1,246,734 (83%)

Above 20%1,123,338 (75%)

Above 25%783,670 (52%)

Electricity billing bands in Imo State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Imo State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	401,368	194,297	₦272bn	₦267bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	378,496	182,302	₦214bn	₦212bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	366,570	178,777	₦227bn	₦225bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	214,938	100,015	₦145bn	₦142bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	144,208	73,422	₦80.9bn	₦80.2bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,447,712	685,762	₦654bn	₦647bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	28,571	21,279	₦141bn	₦140bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	11,639	8,295	₦2.99bn	₦2.99bn	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	10,641	8,311	₦116bn	₦112bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	3,560	2,807	₦6.31bn	₦6.31bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	2,328	1,751	₦12bn	₦11.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	601	273	₦5.25bn	₦4.89bn	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	336	242	₦530m	₦530m	45%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	114	57	₦79.5m	₦79.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	72	31	₦963m	₦962m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	6	5	₦7.81m	₦7.81m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	546,914	262,731	₦337bn	₦335bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	323,647	153,712	₦55.7bn	₦54.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	258,711	124,939	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	19%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	194,956	93,445	₦14.7bn	₦14.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	178,728	92,237	₦411bn	₦405bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	2,624	1,749	₦110bn	₦107bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	1,084,953	519,467	₦592bn	₦585bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	227,342	117,452	₦203bn	₦201bn	41%	2.6 yr
Dense Urban	98,799	52,452	₦68.1bn	₦67.4bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	86,180	35,423	₦71.3bn	₦68.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	8,306	4,019	₦4.34bn	₦4.34bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	462,997	232,742	₦78.8bn	₦76.6bn	27%	3.1 yr
Residential	457,095	231,721	₦526bn	₦520bn	45%	2.4 yr
Shed	270,100	127,934	₦12.1bn	₦12.1bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	155,458	57,513	₦18.1bn	₦18.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	83,509	29,427	₦17.8bn	₦17.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	11,635	8,306	₦2.7bn	₦2.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial	11,084	8,860	₦75.7bn	₦74.4bn	49%	2.1 yr
Apartment	10,921	3,807	₦1.08bn	₦1.07bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	8,617	6,054	₦31.9bn	₦31.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	7,954	6,326	₦83.8bn	₦82.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	7,318	2,465	₦625m	₦625m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	3,263	2,607	₦15bn	₦15bn	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,502,408	727,188	₦929bn	₦916bn
Retail	1,242	446	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn
Commercial	890	626	₦6.04bn	₦5.52bn
Industrial	872	430	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn
Farmyard	140	114	₦138m	₦138m
Orchard	16	1	₦181k	₦181k
Farmland	12	8	₦404m	₦385m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,472,280	703,509	₦702bn	₦694bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	20,512	15,351	₦111bn	₦109bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	12,788	9,953	₦127bn	₦123bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	790,583	403,014	₦713bn	₦704bn
0.0	269,871	127,966	₦12.1bn	₦12.1bn
2.0	211,744	103,182	₦35.2bn	₦34.2bn
4.0	197,326	73,287	₦104bn	₦103bn
1.0	25,967	14,118	₦2.7bn	₦2.69bn
5.0	7,431	5,234	₦27.5bn	₦27.2bn
6.0	2,658	2,012	₦44.6bn	₦43.3bn