Imo State

Rooftop solar in Orsu, Imo: what the roofs are worth

Orsu has 41,405 buildings with a viable rooftop and 958 MWp of roof capacity. 56% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

41,405

Usable roof area

4.26 km²

958 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.1bn/yr

15.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 53% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Orsu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦799bn

NPV₦127bn

Median IRR53%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy10 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity44.6 MWp

Capex₦46.5bn

Year-one energy value₦40.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.92tn

NPV₦322bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Orsu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 44.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦46.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦40.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦322bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Orsu pays back quickly

Of the 41,021 buildings in Orsu with a modelled payback, 69.3% pay back inside five years and 55.4% inside three.

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How much of Orsu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Orsu consume 20.4 GWh/yr but want 30.4 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Orsu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Orsu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 41,021 buildings with a modelled result out of 41,405 in Orsu. 32,271 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,716 (55%)

Under 5 years28,438 (69%)

Under 7 years32,221 (79%)

Under 10 years36,569 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,677 (86%)

Above 15%32,271 (78%)

Above 20%29,630 (72%)

Above 25%23,246 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

27 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.77 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

77.5k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Orsu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Orsu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	19,674	10,786	₦7.29bn	₦6.95bn	51%	1.9 yr
D	14,889	8,746	₦6.12bn	₦6.1bn	61%	1.6 yr
C	6,842	3,575	₦2.72bn	₦2.66bn	35%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	40,862	22,613	₦12.1bn	₦12bn	53%	1.9 yr
Anchor	253	235	₦2.71bn	₦2.34bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	210	189	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	45	42	₦67.1m	₦67.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	19	16	₦100m	₦99.5m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	15	12	₦2.33m	₦2.33m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦109k	₦109k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,649	8,479	₦5.88bn	₦5.87bn	55%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	9,000	4,899	₦964m	₦938m	53%	2.1 yr
Under 30m2	6,920	3,979	₦333m	₦332m	43%	2.1 yr
30 50m2	5,291	3,012	₦355m	₦355m	53%	1.9 yr
250 1000m2	4,509	2,709	₦7.4bn	₦7.23bn	69%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	36	29	₦1.19bn	₦983m	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	38,589	21,975	₦15.7bn	₦15.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	1,432	696	₦242m	₦242m	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	899	257	₦131m	₦131m	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	485	179	₦61.1m	₦61.1m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	14,212	7,874	₦1.48bn	₦1.46bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential	13,915	7,770	₦9.55bn	₦9.54bn	69%	1.6 yr
Shed	8,394	4,658	₦467m	₦467m	61%	1.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,104	1,128	₦253m	₦253m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,838	995	₦283m	₦283m	31%	3.4 yr
Apartment	262	122	₦23.5m	₦23.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	172	155	₦1.15bn	₦1.13bn	57%	1.9 yr
Duplex	129	60	₦10.9m	₦10.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	73	67	₦613m	₦613m	83%	1.4 yr
School	63	61	₦139m	₦139m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	54	48	₦951m	₦815m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial	48	42	₦145m	₦145m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	41,405	23,107	₦16.1bn	₦15.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	41,084	22,814	₦13.2bn	₦13.1bn	53%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	272	251	₦2.81bn	₦2.44bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	49	42	₦145m	₦145m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	24,134	13,452	₦14bn	₦13.6bn
0.0	8,401	4,663	₦469m	₦469m
2.0	5,435	3,098	₦587m	₦561m
4.0	3,066	1,635	₦1.05bn	₦1.04bn
1.0	369	259	₦22.4m	₦22.3m