Imo State

Rooftop solar in Orlu, Imo: what the roofs are worth

Orlu has 86,065 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.13 GWp of roof capacity. 38% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

86,065

Usable roof area

9.47 km²

2.13 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.3bn/yr

24.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Orlu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦26.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.39tn

NPV₦210bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy28.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity113 MWp

Capex₦115bn

Year-one energy value₦90.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.28tn

NPV₦708bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Orlu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 113 MWp
Capital cost: ₦115bn
Year 1 savings: ₦90.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦708bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Orlu pays back quickly

Of the 85,335 buildings in Orlu with a modelled payback, 62.0% pay back inside five years and 35.8% inside three.

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How much of Orlu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Orlu consume 44.2 GWh/yr but want 72.5 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Orlu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Orlu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 85,335 buildings with a modelled result out of 86,065 in Orlu. 66,077 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years30,584 (36%)

Under 5 years52,915 (62%)

Under 7 years65,943 (77%)

Under 10 years76,334 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%74,497 (87%)

Above 15%66,077 (77%)

Above 20%56,709 (66%)

Above 25%34,406 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

50.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

187k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Orlu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Orlu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	35,344	12,912	₦8.11bn	₦8.09bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	23,150	9,118	₦9.02bn	₦8.95bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	16,343	7,251	₦6.11bn	₦6.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	11,157	3,729	₦2.94bn	₦2.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	71	68	₦98.8m	₦98.8m	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	84,547	31,925	₦16.1bn	₦16.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	654	509	₦7.07bn	₦6.98bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	530	405	₦2.45bn	₦2.44bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	166	132	₦278m	₦278m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	110	67	₦261m	₦260m	45%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	28	15	₦28.8m	₦28.8m	33%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	16	12	₦63.5m	₦63.5m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	9	8	₦2.01m	₦2.01m	61%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	4	4	₦4.57m	₦4.53m	51%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦1.74m	₦1.74m	51%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	33,591	12,631	₦8.21bn	₦8.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	18,806	7,099	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	19%	5.4 yr
Under 30m2	12,270	4,875	₦352m	₦350m	13%	7.1 yr
30 50m2	11,065	4,190	₦443m	₦443m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	10,185	4,197	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	148	86	₦5.14bn	₦5.09bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	78,057	30,172	₦24.4bn	₦24.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,948	1,665	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	1,538	612	₦272m	₦272m	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,522	629	₦376m	₦376m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	23,870	10,421	₦12bn	₦12bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	23,203	10,266	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Formal	17,721	3,346	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	23%	4.9 yr
Shed	12,282	5,031	₦451m	₦451m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Informal	6,293	2,569	₦819m	₦819m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,124	273	₦70m	₦70m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	469	366	₦4.77bn	₦4.73bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	176	143	₦498m	₦498m	71%	1.4 yr
School	162	133	₦284m	₦284m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	125	86	₦1.47bn	₦1.43bn	41%	2.6 yr
Clinic	85	62	₦423m	₦422m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial Site	81	54	₦215m	₦214m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	85,922	33,016	₦26.1bn	₦26bn
Commercial	143	62	₦173m	₦173m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	85,201	32,419	₦17.9bn	₦17.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	762	574	₦7.32bn	₦7.24bn	53%	2.1 yr
SME High	102	85	₦1.08bn	₦1.07bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	34,709	14,648	₦18.3bn	₦18.3bn
2.0	20,776	9,092	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn
4.0	16,901	3,536	₦4.67bn	₦4.64bn
0.0	12,194	5,019	₦448m	₦448m
1.0	1,459	766	₦39m	₦38m
5.0	24	16	₦600m	₦591m
6.0	2	1	₦585m	₦585m