Imo State

Rooftop solar in Ahiazu-Mbaise, Imo: what the roofs are worth

Ahiazu-Mbaise has 54,159 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.18 GWp of roof capacity. 43% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

54,159

Usable roof area

5.27 km²

1.18 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23.9bn/yr

21.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ahiazu-Mbaise

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦23.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.26tn

NPV₦194bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy26.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity116 MWp

Capex₦115bn

Year-one energy value₦95.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.54tn

NPV₦757bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ahiazu-Mbaise's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 116 MWp
Capital cost: ₦115bn
Year 1 savings: ₦95.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦757bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ahiazu-Mbaise pays back quickly

Of the 54,009 buildings in Ahiazu-Mbaise with a modelled payback, 70.0% pay back inside five years and 43.1% inside three.

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How much of Ahiazu-Mbaise's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ahiazu-Mbaise consume 38.3 GWh/yr but want 64.6 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ahiazu-Mbaise

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ahiazu-Mbaise actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 54,009 buildings with a modelled result out of 54,159 in Ahiazu-Mbaise. 45,160 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years23,259 (43%)

Under 5 years37,786 (70%)

Under 7 years45,101 (84%)

Under 10 years48,797 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%47,939 (89%)

Above 15%45,160 (83%)

Above 20%39,931 (74%)

Above 25%26,458 (49%)

CO₂ avoided

46.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

206k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ahiazu-Mbaise.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ahiazu-Mbaise

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	22,920	10,247	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	15,354	6,261	₦5.79bn	₦5.78bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	10,891	5,059	₦5.67bn	₦5.54bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	4,994	1,907	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	51,127	21,678	₦17.1bn	₦17.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,533	865	₦4.16bn	₦4.15bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	742	305	₦103m	₦103m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	397	339	₦1.74bn	₦1.6bn	61%	1.9 yr
Worship	224	192	₦405m	₦405m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	112	82	₦354m	₦354m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	20	12	₦21.9m	₦21.9m	45%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	4	1	₦4.61m	₦4.61m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,894	8,224	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	12,058	5,112	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,192	4,276	₦368m	₦368m	17%	6.4 yr
30 50m2	7,492	3,285	₦492m	₦491m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,478	2,552	₦10.7bn	₦10.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	45	25	₦576m	₦568m	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	52,462	22,824	₦23.2bn	₦23bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,697	650	₦701m	₦699m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	20,152	8,621	₦2.37bn	₦2.36bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	18,400	8,091	₦14.3bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	11,799	4,962	₦403m	₦403m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	764	1	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	698	305	₦86.6m	₦86.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	594	407	₦2.27bn	₦2.27bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	580	186	₦913m	₦906m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	375	310	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	140	122	₦472m	₦472m	81%	1.4 yr
School	110	95	₦204m	₦204m	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	79	61	₦269m	₦269m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	79	65	₦106m	₦106m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	54,014	23,474	₦23.9bn	₦23.7bn
Retail	145	0	₦22m	₦22m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	52,406	22,446	₦18.5bn	₦18.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,244	607	₦3.25bn	₦3.24bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	509	421	₦2.09bn	₦1.96bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	31,255	14,440	₦19.3bn	₦19.2bn
0.0	11,810	4,965	₦404m	₦404m
2.0	7,414	3,077	₦945m	₦943m
4.0	2,291	348	₦2.05bn	₦2.05bn
1.0	875	523	₦84.3m	₦84.3m
5.0	415	98	₦660m	₦653m
6.0	99	23	₦411m	₦411m