Imo State

Rooftop solar in Oguta, Imo: what the roofs are worth

Oguta has 53,021 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.26 GWp of roof capacity. 69% run a generator, and together they spend ₦70.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

53,021

Usable roof area

5.59 km²

1.26 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦70.4bn/yr

63.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 55% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oguta

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦70.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦69.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.53tn

NPV₦548bn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy29.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity140 MWp

Capex₦144bn

Year-one energy value₦119bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.64tn

NPV₦940bn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Oguta's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 140 MWp
Capital cost: ₦144bn
Year 1 savings: ₦119bn/yr
NPV: ₦940bn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oguta pays back quickly

Of the 52,804 buildings in Oguta with a modelled payback, 84.9% pay back inside five years and 64.9% inside three.

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How much of Oguta's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oguta consume 88.4 GWh/yr but want 118 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oguta

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oguta actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 52,804 buildings with a modelled result out of 53,021 in Oguta. 48,400 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years34,248 (65%)

Under 5 years44,807 (85%)

Under 7 years48,363 (92%)

Under 10 years50,224 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,923 (94%)

Above 15%48,400 (91%)

Above 20%45,713 (86%)

Above 25%39,156 (74%)

CO₂ avoided

115 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

39.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

215k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oguta.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oguta

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	14,849	10,427	₦10.1bn	₦10bn	43%	2.4 yr
D	12,928	9,156	₦19.6bn	₦19bn	67%	1.6 yr
B	10,323	6,131	₦13.2bn	₦13.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
E	8,527	5,938	₦13.8bn	₦13.6bn	69%	1.6 yr
C	6,394	5,111	₦13.6bn	₦13.6bn	69%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	51,739	35,881	₦60.4bn	₦59.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	583	372	₦4.68bn	₦4.66bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	350	299	₦4.32bn	₦4.27bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	182	67	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Worship	94	85	₦183m	₦183m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	57	46	₦404m	₦387m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	11	10	₦309m	₦281m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	5	3	₦13.9m	₦13.9m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,227	13,633	₦26.2bn	₦25.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	11,155	7,793	₦3.97bn	₦3.9bn	55%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	9,553	6,327	₦718m	₦704m	49%	2.1 yr
30 50m2	6,780	4,459	₦887m	₦886m	51%	2.1 yr
250 1000m2	6,226	4,484	₦33.8bn	₦33.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	80	67	₦4.72bn	₦4.69bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	20,706	13,859	₦18.2bn	₦18.1bn	43%	2.4 yr
Urban	18,984	14,025	₦33.6bn	₦33bn	67%	1.6 yr
Urban Centre	7,999	6,729	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
Unclassified	5,053	2,124	₦8.4bn	₦8.13bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	279	26	₦79.5m	₦79.5m	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	15,848	11,815	₦51.1bn	₦50.3bn	61%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	15,699	11,397	₦6.37bn	₦6.29bn	59%	1.9 yr
Shed	10,067	6,427	₦800m	₦800m	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	7,425	4,498	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,397	998	₦607m	₦607m	47%	2.4 yr
Apartment	870	517	₦133m	₦133m	31%	3.6 yr
Duplex	420	219	₦61.5m	₦61.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	301	133	₦2.84bn	₦2.82bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	258	221	₦3.05bn	₦3.04bn	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	182	67	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	106	92	₦770m	₦770m	73%	1.4 yr
School	88	78	₦392m	₦392m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	52,758	36,622	₦70bn	₦69.1bn
Industrial	262	140	₦316m	₦315m
Commercial	1	1	₦3.31m	₦3.31m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	52,285	36,259	₦62.6bn	₦61.7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	407	345	₦4.72bn	₦4.66bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	329	159	₦3.06bn	₦3.03bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	26,744	19,997	₦60.8bn	₦59.9bn
0.0	10,080	6,436	₦804m	₦804m
4.0	8,871	5,433	₦4.6bn	₦4.59bn
2.0	6,263	4,399	₦2.57bn	₦2.55bn
1.0	1,000	441	₦134m	₦133m
5.0	41	37	₦167m	₦167m
6.0	22	20	₦1.26bn	₦1.24bn