Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Ekiti State: buildings, spend and payback

554,639 buildings in Ekiti State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦513bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 29% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

554,639

Usable roof area

56.9 km²

12.8 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦513bn/yr

441 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ekiti

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦513bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦495bn

Lifetime cash saved₦26tn

NPV₦4.02tn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy352 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.51 GWp

Capex₦1.56tn

Year-one energy value₦1.35tn

Lifetime energy value₦63.9tn

NPV₦10.7tn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ekiti State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.51 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.56tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.35tn/yr
NPV: ₦10.7tn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ekiti State pays back quickly

Of the 546,053 buildings in Ekiti State with a modelled payback, 72.0% pay back inside five years and 28.7% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

72.0%

Payback under 3 years

28.7%

IRR above 20%

74.3%

Under 3 years · 29%3 – 5 years · 43%5 – 7 years · 12%7 – 10 years · 7%Over 10 years · 9%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Ekiti State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Ekiti State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ekiti State consume 738 GWh/yr but want 1.09 TWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 68%Suppressed · 32%

Energy wanted

1.09 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

738 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

352 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Ekiti State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 546,053 buildings with a modelled result out of 554,639 in Ekiti State. 458,608 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years156,969 (29%)

Under 5 years393,043 (72%)

Under 7 years458,339 (84%)

Under 10 years495,714 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%489,970 (88%)

Above 15%458,608 (83%)

Above 20%412,353 (74%)

Above 25%356,430 (64%)

Electricity billing bands in Ekiti State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ekiti State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	216,374	85,375	₦368bn	₦351bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	176,969	46,719	₦103bn	₦102bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	109,102	18,729	₦28.8bn	₦28.7bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	46,133	10,972	₦12.4bn	₦12.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
A	6,061	223	₦687m	₦685m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	535,672	148,555	₦436bn	₦420bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	7,282	5,187	₦29.2bn	₦29.2bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	5,586	3,886	₦36.8bn	₦35.4bn	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	2,258	1,649	₦5.91bn	₦5.88bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,896	1,513	₦500m	₦500m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	1,359	849	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	271	168	₦2.28bn	₦2.27bn	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	262	184	₦326m	₦326m	49%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	30	14	₦51.3m	₦51.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	20	12	₦40.6m	₦40.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	3	1	₦3.5m	₦3.5m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	214,004	63,082	₦219bn	₦213bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	129,278	36,359	₦6.34bn	₦5.63bn	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	91,192	23,653	₦22.1bn	₦21.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	60,876	16,899	₦5.74bn	₦5.66bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	58,575	21,720	₦232bn	₦224bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	714	305	₦27.1bn	₦26bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	339,002	84,806	₦183bn	₦182bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	101,571	41,867	₦139bn	₦135bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	52,593	19,773	₦115bn	₦110bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	46,978	9,721	₦51.5bn	₦45.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	14,495	5,851	₦23.8bn	₦22.1bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	199,188	35,968	₦39.8bn	₦39.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	114,157	46,136	₦351bn	₦337bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	98,457	35,807	₦33.3bn	₦31.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	65,031	18,993	₦2.4bn	₦2.4bn	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	58,276	11,521	₦9.18bn	₦9.18bn	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	4,433	3,114	₦24.3bn	₦24.2bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,515	2,076	₦14.5bn	₦14.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	2,017	1,442	₦4.93bn	₦4.93bn	65%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,903	1,520	₦524m	₦524m	51%	2.1 yr
School	1,725	1,232	₦3.47bn	₦3.47bn	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	1,305	920	₦3.47bn	₦3.45bn	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	743	503	₦10.1bn	₦9.1bn	39%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	549,463	161,913	₦512bn	₦495bn
Commercial	5,120	102	₦332m	₦332m
Industrial	50	0	₦5.49m	₦5.49m
Farmyard	5	3	₦4.52m	₦4.52m
Farmland	1	0	₦50.8k	₦50.8k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	543,716	154,032	₦454bn	₦437bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	7,822	5,526	₦42.7bn	₦41.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	3,101	2,460	₦16.6bn	₦16.6bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	175,550	60,861	₦376bn	₦363bn
4.0	153,709	29,858	₦64.5bn	₦64.2bn
2.0	121,547	38,987	₦56.6bn	₦52.7bn
0.0	65,095	19,066	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn
1.0	37,735	12,644	₦5.61bn	₦4.92bn
5.0	897	564	₦6.4bn	₦6.4bn
6.0	106	38	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn