Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Irepodun/Ifelodun, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Irepodun/Ifelodun has 44,192 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.06 GWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

44,192

Usable roof area

4.7 km²

1.06 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24bn/yr

22.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Irepodun/Ifelodun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦23.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.26tn

NPV₦195bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy19.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity82 MWp

Capex₦81.2bn

Year-one energy value₦67.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.22tn

NPV₦537bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Irepodun/Ifelodun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 82 MWp
Capital cost: ₦81.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦67.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦537bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Irepodun/Ifelodun pays back quickly

Of the 41,988 buildings in Irepodun/Ifelodun with a modelled payback, 62.5% pay back inside five years and 31.9% inside three.

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How much of Irepodun/Ifelodun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Irepodun/Ifelodun consume 37.3 GWh/yr but want 56.5 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Irepodun/Ifelodun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Irepodun/Ifelodun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 41,988 buildings with a modelled result out of 44,192 in Irepodun/Ifelodun. 32,109 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,399 (32%)

Under 5 years26,239 (62%)

Under 7 years32,075 (76%)

Under 10 years36,243 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,563 (80%)

Above 15%32,109 (73%)

Above 20%27,779 (63%)

Above 25%23,289 (53%)

CO₂ avoided

43.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

127k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Irepodun/Ifelodun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Irepodun/Ifelodun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	22,528	9,383	₦18.1bn	₦18bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	18,811	3,944	₦5.22bn	₦5.22bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	2,853	332	₦676m	₦676m	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	41,946	11,792	₦16.2bn	₦16.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	967	836	₦4.28bn	₦4.28bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	462	437	₦132m	₦132m	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	402	310	₦2.51bn	₦2.48bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	267	186	₦662m	₦659m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	115	77	₦125m	₦125m	51%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	20	14	₦20.9m	₦20.6m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	12	6	₦73.6m	₦73.6m	35%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦292k	₦292k	51%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	17,488	5,479	₦9.66bn	₦9.65bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	10,081	3,059	₦396m	₦393m	9%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	7,127	1,930	₦982m	₦982m	21%	5.4 yr
30 50m2	4,741	1,406	₦355m	₦353m	15%	6.6 yr
250 1000m2	4,658	1,750	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	97	35	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	23,185	4,840	₦6.32bn	₦6.32bn	23%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	8,804	5,134	₦7.95bn	₦7.92bn	51%	2.1 yr
Urban	8,615	2,574	₦6.95bn	₦6.86bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	3,180	785	₦2.08bn	₦2.06bn	19%	5.4 yr
Rural	408	326	₦715m	₦715m	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	14,349	2,597	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	10,974	4,282	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	9,227	3,313	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	21%	4.6 yr
Shed	5,576	1,574	₦203m	₦203m	13%	7.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,756	10	₦62.9m	₦62.9m	21%	5.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	566	555	₦2.96bn	₦2.96bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	462	437	₦132m	₦132m	53%	2.1 yr
Institutional	400	293	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	159	110	₦477m	₦474m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	142	115	₦431m	₦431m	73%	1.4 yr
School	124	95	₦192m	₦192m	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	53	36	₦92.1m	₦92.1m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	44,186	13,656	₦24bn	₦23.9bn
Farmyard	5	3	₦4.52m	₦4.52m
Farmland	1	0	₦50.8k	₦50.8k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	42,906	12,567	₦17.6bn	₦17.5bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	668	496	₦3.17bn	₦3.14bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	618	596	₦3.28bn	₦3.28bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	14,772	5,143	₦16bn	₦15.9bn
4.0	11,215	2,441	₦3.89bn	₦3.88bn
2.0	9,686	3,165	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn
0.0	5,616	1,585	₦213m	₦213m
1.0	2,637	1,065	₦210m	₦208m
5.0	248	243	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn
6.0	18	17	₦271m	₦271m