Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Ikole, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Ikole has 37,067 buildings with a viable rooftop and 787 MWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

37,067

Usable roof area

3.5 km²

787 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.9bn/yr

34.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikole

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦38.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.99tn

NPV₦316bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy23.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity104 MWp

Capex₦109bn

Year-one energy value₦104bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.93tn

NPV₦840bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ikole's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 104 MWp
Capital cost: ₦109bn
Year 1 savings: ₦104bn/yr
NPV: ₦840bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikole pays back quickly

Of the 36,591 buildings in Ikole with a modelled payback, 70.3% pay back inside five years and 33.5% inside three.

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How much of Ikole's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikole consume 49.5 GWh/yr but want 72.6 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikole

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikole actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 36,591 buildings with a modelled result out of 37,067 in Ikole. 28,812 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,244 (33%)

Under 5 years25,716 (70%)

Under 7 years28,801 (79%)

Under 10 years30,906 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,478 (82%)

Above 15%28,812 (78%)

Above 20%26,686 (72%)

Above 25%23,909 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

67 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

241k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikole.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ikole

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	34,565	11,950	₦37.9bn	₦37.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	2,502	190	₦979m	₦977m	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	35,849	11,343	₦33.8bn	₦33.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	440	249	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	361	293	₦2.95bn	₦2.83bn	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	227	144	₦493m	₦492m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	98	72	₦125m	₦125m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	73	23	₦8.77m	₦8.77m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	14	12	₦21.4m	₦21.4m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	3	2	₦6.47m	₦6.47m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦868k	₦868k	53%	2.1 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦475k	₦475k	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,677	4,631	₦16.3bn	₦16.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	10,314	2,763	₦427m	₦427m	9%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	5,855	1,776	₦1.68bn	₦1.67bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,502	1,299	₦496m	₦483m	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,681	1,651	₦18.5bn	₦18.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	38	20	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	39%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	18,271	5,624	₦14.1bn	₦14bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	7,209	2,611	₦9.45bn	₦9.42bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	6,275	814	₦4.18bn	₦3.9bn	7%	14.1 yr
Rural	3,141	1,933	₦5.88bn	₦5.74bn	75%	1.4 yr
Urban	2,171	1,158	₦5.34bn	₦5.27bn	69%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	9,585	1,144	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,687	3,962	₦27.4bn	₦26.9bn	77%	1.4 yr
Shed	7,247	1,959	₦239m	₦239m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Small	7,136	3,371	₦2.81bn	₦2.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,128	899	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	359	263	₦1.97bn	₦1.97bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	153	89	₦270m	₦270m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	151	123	₦571m	₦571m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	129	22	₦202m	₦202m	35%	3.1 yr
School	118	94	₦309m	₦309m	81%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	73	23	₦8.77m	₦8.77m	33%	3.1 yr
Agricultural	58	8	₦5.43m	₦5.43m	15%	6.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	37,067	12,140	₦38.9bn	₦38.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	36,329	11,663	₦35.2bn	₦34.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	588	437	₦3.45bn	₦3.32bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	150	40	₦255m	₦255m	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	10,427	4,769	₦30.2bn	₦29.8bn
2.0	8,355	3,365	₦4.68bn	₦4.51bn
4.0	7,504	1,025	₦3.27bn	₦3.25bn
0.0	7,294	1,965	₦243m	₦243m
1.0	3,380	1,007	₦389m	₦373m
5.0	101	8	₦126m	₦126m
6.0	6	1	₦24.1m	₦24.1m