Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Ijero, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Ijero has 31,770 buildings with a viable rooftop and 689 MWp of roof capacity. 45% run a generator, and together they spend ₦66.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

31,770

Usable roof area

3.07 km²

689 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦66.5bn/yr

58.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ijero

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦66.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦64.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.32tn

NPV₦528bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy33.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity149 MWp

Capex₦156bn

Year-one energy value₦148bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.96tn

NPV₦1.18tn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ijero's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 149 MWp
Capital cost: ₦156bn
Year 1 savings: ₦148bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.18tn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ijero pays back quickly

Of the 31,640 buildings in Ijero with a modelled payback, 81.8% pay back inside five years and 45.0% inside three.

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How much of Ijero's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ijero consume 80.8 GWh/yr but want 114 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ijero

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ijero actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 31,640 buildings with a modelled result out of 31,770 in Ijero. 28,129 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,229 (45%)

Under 5 years25,897 (82%)

Under 7 years28,122 (89%)

Under 10 years29,423 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,166 (92%)

Above 15%28,129 (89%)

Above 20%26,574 (84%)

Above 25%24,492 (77%)

CO₂ avoided

111 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

37.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

374k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ijero.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ijero

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	24,669	12,098	₦60.9bn	₦58.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	7,101	2,154	₦5.57bn	₦5.57bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,726	13,316	₦61bn	₦59.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	380	347	₦3.2bn	₦2.66bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	315	283	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	208	185	₦668m	₦661m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	121	104	₦290m	₦290m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	9	8	₦11.3m	₦11.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	7	5	₦2.61m	₦2.61m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	4	4	₦5.58m	₦5.58m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,054	5,617	₦31.3bn	₦30.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	7,639	3,321	₦725m	₦715m	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	5,614	2,193	₦3.36bn	₦3.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	3,552	1,460	₦749m	₦741m	25%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,882	1,640	₦27.8bn	₦27bn	61%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	29	21	₦2.52bn	₦2.01bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	13,705	5,380	₦21.7bn	₦21.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	9,061	4,585	₦14.9bn	₦14.9bn	45%	2.4 yr
Urban	4,406	3,141	₦23.7bn	₦22.6bn	75%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	3,603	796	₦4.84bn	₦4.29bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	995	350	₦1.33bn	₦1.14bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	10,123	2,847	₦5.42bn	₦5.42bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,545	3,830	₦5.35bn	₦5.28bn	55%	1.9 yr
Residential	7,388	4,123	₦48.3bn	₦46.8bn	65%	1.6 yr
Shed	4,029	1,622	₦203m	₦203m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,605	883	₦1.65bn	₦1.65bn	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	355	316	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	152	134	₦533m	₦533m	79%	1.4 yr
School	127	114	₦247m	₦247m	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	119	101	₦402m	₦398m	71%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	45	45	₦1.87bn	₦1.35bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	43	41	₦146m	₦143m	75%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	42	36	₦27.3m	₦27.3m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	31,770	14,252	₦66.5bn	₦64.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,150	13,690	₦62.3bn	₦60.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	588	532	₦3.87bn	₦3.32bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	32	30	₦272m	₦272m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	10,079	5,223	₦49.8bn	₦48.3bn
4.0	7,374	2,215	₦6.87bn	₦6.81bn
2.0	7,329	3,880	₦8.67bn	₦8.18bn
0.0	4,060	1,631	₦213m	₦213m
1.0	2,925	1,300	₦880m	₦833m
5.0	3	3	₦17.3m	₦17.3m