Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Moba, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Moba has 23,461 buildings with a viable rooftop and 571 MWp of roof capacity. 34% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

23,461

Usable roof area

2.54 km²

571 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36.2bn/yr

30.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Moba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.72tn

NPV₦274bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy24 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity97 MWp

Capex₦101bn

Year-one energy value₦93.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.42tn

NPV₦750bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Moba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 97 MWp
Capital cost: ₦101bn
Year 1 savings: ₦93.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦750bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Moba pays back quickly

Of the 23,217 buildings in Moba with a modelled payback, 78.7% pay back inside five years and 34.2% inside three.

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How much of Moba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Moba consume 48.5 GWh/yr but want 72.5 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Moba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Moba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 23,217 buildings with a modelled result out of 23,461 in Moba. 20,378 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,929 (34%)

Under 5 years18,268 (79%)

Under 7 years20,376 (88%)

Under 10 years21,579 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,381 (91%)

Above 15%20,378 (87%)

Above 20%18,932 (81%)

Above 25%17,159 (73%)

CO₂ avoided

60.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

227k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Moba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Moba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	12,551	4,821	₦26bn	₦23.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	8,677	2,507	₦7.86bn	₦7.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	2,233	628	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	22,527	7,205	₦32.8bn	₦29.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	337	256	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	255	212	₦982m	₦981m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	168	144	₦694m	₦693m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	111	103	₦184m	₦184m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	55	30	₦6.97m	₦6.97m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	8	6	₦8.35m	₦8.35m	51%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,890	3,330	₦16.1bn	₦14.9bn	27%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	5,115	1,717	₦311m	₦310m	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	3,579	1,073	₦1.47bn	₦1.37bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,705	1,132	₦17.4bn	₦15.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	2,146	694	₦288m	₦288m	23%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	26	10	₦604m	₦604m	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	8,905	2,904	₦8.34bn	₦8.14bn	27%	3.9 yr
Dense Urban	6,279	2,635	₦15.5bn	₦13bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	5,698	1,596	₦8.32bn	₦8.27bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	2,424	759	₦3.56bn	₦3.34bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	155	62	₦422m	₦398m	27%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	7,484	3,027	₦28.7bn	₦25.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,296	994	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	5,939	2,177	₦2.49bn	₦2.37bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	2,771	994	₦114m	₦114m	11%	7.9 yr
Institutional	265	224	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	100	85	₦468m	₦467m	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	96	79	₦287m	₦287m	83%	1.1 yr
School	79	65	₦154m	₦154m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	67	43	₦307m	₦307m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	66	45	₦352m	₦352m	39%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	55	30	₦6.97m	₦6.97m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	37	35	₦34.9m	₦34.9m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	23,461	7,956	₦36.2bn	₦33.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	22,897	7,506	₦33.8bn	₦30.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	423	356	₦1.68bn	₦1.67bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	141	94	₦668m	₦668m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,329	3,569	₦29.4bn	₦26.9bn
4.0	5,704	864	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn
2.0	5,266	1,874	₦3.74bn	₦3.18bn
0.0	2,798	1,009	₦121m	₦121m
1.0	1,324	629	₦198m	₦195m
5.0	33	11	₦302m	₦302m
6.0	7	0	₦21.4m	₦21.4m