Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Oye, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Oye has 35,614 buildings with a viable rooftop and 846 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

35,614

Usable roof area

3.76 km²

846 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.4bn/yr

35.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oye

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦37.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.95tn

NPV₦309bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy19.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89 MWp

Capex₦93bn

Year-one energy value₦87.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.15tn

NPV₦705bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Oye's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93bn
Year 1 savings: ₦87.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦705bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oye pays back quickly

Of the 35,111 buildings in Oye with a modelled payback, 70.9% pay back inside five years and 35.4% inside three.

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How much of Oye's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oye consume 48.1 GWh/yr but want 67.4 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oye

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oye actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 35,111 buildings with a modelled result out of 35,614 in Oye. 28,249 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,426 (35%)

Under 5 years24,911 (71%)

Under 7 years28,245 (80%)

Under 10 years30,903 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,358 (85%)

Above 15%28,249 (79%)

Above 20%25,938 (73%)

Above 25%22,770 (64%)

CO₂ avoided

63.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

181k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oye.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oye

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	22,400	9,531	₦33.5bn	₦32.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	13,214	2,952	₦4.9bn	₦4.9bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	34,782	11,805	₦32bn	₦31.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	317	251	₦3.82bn	₦3.7bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	316	271	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	72	48	₦93.2m	₦93.2m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	66	55	₦248m	₦246m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	38	38	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	15	11	₦43.7m	₦43.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	7	4	₦16.9m	₦16.9m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦57k	₦57k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,671	5,167	₦15bn	₦14.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,276	2,570	₦391m	₦388m	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	5,847	1,806	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	25%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,056	1,760	₦18.3bn	₦18bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	3,716	1,163	₦335m	₦335m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	48	17	₦2.86bn	₦2.86bn	27%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	16,955	4,363	₦9.25bn	₦9.25bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	8,987	4,030	₦11bn	₦10.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	5,604	3,234	₦15.3bn	₦14.9bn	73%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	3,477	758	₦2.53bn	₦2.3bn	9%	9.4 yr
Rural	591	98	₦341m	₦341m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	10,788	1,971	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	10,106	4,749	₦27.2bn	₦26.9bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	8,012	3,284	₦2.53bn	₦2.34bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	5,859	1,797	₦239m	₦239m	9%	9.9 yr
Institutional	226	179	₦3.16bn	₦3.16bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	118	98	₦418m	₦418m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	97	97	₦925m	₦925m	71%	1.4 yr
School	92	74	₦189m	₦189m	79%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	48	40	₦161m	₦160m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	41	30	₦718m	₦602m	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	39	38	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Clinic	32	26	₦310m	₦308m	51%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	35,614	12,483	₦38.4bn	₦37.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	35,111	12,062	₦33.2bn	₦32.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	383	306	₦4.07bn	₦3.95bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	120	115	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,911	4,920	₦28.6bn	₦28.2bn
4.0	8,209	1,611	₦3.43bn	₦3.39bn
2.0	7,608	3,236	₦5.51bn	₦5.32bn
0.0	5,865	1,801	₦241m	₦241m
1.0	2,018	912	₦393m	₦393m
5.0	3	3	₦139m	₦139m