Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Ikere, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Ikere has 40,500 buildings with a viable rooftop and 941 MWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

40,500

Usable roof area

4.19 km²

941 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.4bn/yr

10.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikere

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦776bn

NPV₦110bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy16.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity70.4 MWp

Capex₦73.6bn

Year-one energy value₦56.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.67tn

NPV₦439bn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ikere's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 70.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦73.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦56.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦439bn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikere pays back quickly

Of the 39,364 buildings in Ikere with a modelled payback, 66.0% pay back inside five years and 16.5% inside three.

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How much of Ikere's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikere consume 28.3 GWh/yr but want 45.2 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikere

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikere actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 39,364 buildings with a modelled result out of 40,500 in Ikere. 31,986 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,492 (16%)

Under 5 years25,977 (66%)

Under 7 years31,945 (81%)

Under 10 years35,286 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,852 (86%)

Above 15%31,986 (79%)

Above 20%27,592 (68%)

Above 25%23,130 (57%)

CO₂ avoided

29.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.19 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

172k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikere.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ikere

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	21,271	3,982	₦5.04bn	₦5.04bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	14,947	2,015	₦3.83bn	₦3.83bn	25%	4.1 yr
E	3,854	638	₦5.38bn	₦4.92bn	13%	6.6 yr
B	428	28	₦110m	₦110m	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	39,485	6,140	₦11.9bn	₦11.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	407	208	₦710m	₦710m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	376	188	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	87	56	₦92.1m	₦91.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	79	46	₦8.3m	₦8.3m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	37	9	₦11.4m	₦11.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	18	10	₦9.77m	₦9.77m	37%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	8	4	₦24m	₦24m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	45%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦62.7k	₦62.7k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	16,048	2,474	₦4.63bn	₦4.54bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	9,754	1,540	₦184m	₦183m	13%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	5,974	912	₦453m	₦452m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,367	693	₦150m	₦149m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,284	1,004	₦6.03bn	₦6.03bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	73	40	₦2.92bn	₦2.54bn	47%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	34,069	5,680	₦8.64bn	₦8.63bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	3,608	413	₦2.5bn	₦2.04bn	13%	6.6 yr
Urban	2,823	570	₦3.23bn	₦3.23bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	21,581	1,512	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	7,890	2,150	₦9.29bn	₦8.83bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	5,024	1,416	₦559m	₦557m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,276	940	₦105m	₦105m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	669	116	₦120m	₦120m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	245	125	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	31%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	138	71	₦115m	₦115m	45%	2.4 yr
School	125	69	₦97.1m	₦97.1m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	92	68	₦170m	₦170m	47%	2.4 yr
Unknown	82	29	₦166m	₦166m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	78	46	₦8.12m	₦8.12m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial Site	48	27	₦54.8m	₦54.6m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	35,380	6,561	₦14bn	₦13.6bn
Commercial	5,120	102	₦332m	₦332m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	39,917	6,334	₦12.4bn	₦11.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	458	241	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	43%	2.4 yr
SME High	125	88	₦277m	₦277m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	15,948	1,330	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn
3.0	13,043	2,715	₦10.5bn	₦10.1bn
2.0	5,892	1,348	₦957m	₦871m
0.0	4,282	942	₦106m	₦106m
1.0	1,317	321	₦78.7m	₦78.7m
5.0	17	7	₦102m	₦102m
6.0	1	0	₦4.05m	₦4.05m