Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Gbonyin, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Gbonyin has 19,085 buildings with a viable rooftop and 461 MWp of roof capacity. 38% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

19,085

Usable roof area

2.05 km²

461 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.1bn/yr

34.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gbonyin

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦36.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.85tn

NPV₦297bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy20.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity97.6 MWp

Capex₦102bn

Year-one energy value₦97.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.6tn

NPV₦785bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gbonyin's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 97.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦102bn
Year 1 savings: ₦97.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦785bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gbonyin pays back quickly

Of the 19,016 buildings in Gbonyin with a modelled payback, 82.1% pay back inside five years and 38.5% inside three.

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How much of Gbonyin's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gbonyin consume 46.5 GWh/yr but want 66.9 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gbonyin

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gbonyin actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 19,016 buildings with a modelled result out of 19,085 in Gbonyin. 16,886 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,323 (39%)

Under 5 years15,619 (82%)

Under 7 years16,880 (89%)

Under 10 years17,785 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,580 (92%)

Above 15%16,886 (88%)

Above 20%16,017 (84%)

Above 25%14,614 (77%)

CO₂ avoided

62.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

250k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gbonyin.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gbonyin

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	16,780	6,959	₦36.8bn	₦35bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	2,305	328	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	18,233	6,605	₦33.7bn	₦32bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	291	241	₦2.33bn	₦2.3bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	240	205	₦929m	₦929m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	216	162	₦864m	₦863m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	89	58	₦167m	₦167m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	16	16	₦31.8m	₦31.8m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	7,276	2,855	₦15.4bn	₦14.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	4,081	1,146	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	3,239	1,312	₦286m	₦284m	19%	5.9 yr
30 50m2	2,296	849	₦408m	₦408m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,177	1,116	₦19.2bn	₦18.1bn	47%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	16	9	₦1.3bn	₦1.28bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	12,946	5,438	₦24.1bn	₦23.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	3,257	761	₦5.12bn	₦4.78bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	1,607	749	₦3.84bn	₦3.19bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	1,275	339	₦4.98bn	₦4.58bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	5,997	2,001	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	5,982	2,637	₦29.2bn	₦27.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,147	1,201	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	2,095	761	₦110m	₦110m	11%	9.1 yr
Institutional	288	229	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	110	84	₦470m	₦468m	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	105	85	₦234m	₦234m	81%	1.4 yr
School	82	67	₦169m	₦169m	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial	46	34	₦253m	₦253m	71%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	43	38	₦859m	₦839m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	40	33	₦429m	₦417m	51%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	30	21	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	19,085	7,287	₦38.1bn	₦36.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	18,548	6,855	₦34.7bn	₦32.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	507	403	₦3.2bn	₦3.16bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	30	29	₦211m	₦211m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	7,316	3,436	₦31.2bn	₦29.7bn
2.0	4,359	1,571	₦3.44bn	₦3.12bn
4.0	3,370	1,037	₦2.99bn	₦2.99bn
0.0	2,102	764	₦114m	₦114m
1.0	1,934	475	₦249m	₦249m
5.0	3	3	₦30m	₦30m
6.0	1	1	₦42.2m	₦42.2m