Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Ise/Orun, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Ise/Orun has 22,250 buildings with a viable rooftop and 463 MWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

22,250

Usable roof area

2.06 km²

463 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.9bn/yr

25.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ise/Orun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.46tn

NPV₦230bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy15.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76 MWp

Capex₦79.9bn

Year-one energy value₦72.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.43tn

NPV₦581bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ise/Orun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76 MWp
Capital cost: ₦79.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦72.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦581bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ise/Orun pays back quickly

Of the 22,102 buildings in Ise/Orun with a modelled payback, 73.1% pay back inside five years and 32.5% inside three.

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How much of Ise/Orun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ise/Orun consume 38.2 GWh/yr but want 53.9 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ise/Orun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ise/Orun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 22,102 buildings with a modelled result out of 22,250 in Ise/Orun. 18,218 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,180 (32%)

Under 5 years16,164 (73%)

Under 7 years18,207 (82%)

Under 10 years19,406 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,187 (86%)

Above 15%18,218 (82%)

Above 20%16,822 (76%)

Above 25%14,915 (67%)

CO₂ avoided

49.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

185k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ise/Orun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ise/Orun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	11,962	3,830	₦23.6bn	₦22.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	10,288	3,460	₦6.35bn	₦6.32bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	21,590	6,788	₦27.3bn	₦26bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	287	225	₦1.41bn	₦1.35bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	193	145	₦843m	₦843m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	96	72	₦229m	₦227m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	74	51	₦108m	₦108m	53%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	9	8	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦218k	₦218k	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	7,716	2,702	₦12.6bn	₦12.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	5,859	1,857	₦309m	₦303m	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	4,155	995	₦1.24bn	₦1.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	2,490	711	₦274m	₦274m	21%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,022	1,021	₦14.7bn	₦13.7bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	8	4	₦809m	₦800m	27%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	15,046	5,987	₦17.9bn	₦17.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	2,693	404	₦3.33bn	₦3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	2,282	599	₦6.84bn	₦5.93bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	2,229	300	₦1.82bn	₦1.7bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	8,318	2,239	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	5,191	1,564	₦1.81bn	₦1.77bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	4,839	2,108	₦22.6bn	₦21.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	3,212	867	₦109m	₦109m	7%	14.1 yr
Institutional	217	163	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	102	81	₦273m	₦273m	71%	1.4 yr
School	86	72	₦193m	₦193m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	53	42	₦121m	₦119m	69%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	46	33	₦412m	₦397m	37%	2.9 yr
Clinic	36	24	₦296m	₦255m	33%	3.1 yr
Place Of Worship	27	18	₦25m	₦25m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	23	17	₦9.64m	₦9.64m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	22,250	7,290	₦29.9bn	₦28.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	21,854	6,983	₦28.3bn	₦26.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	383	297	₦1.64bn	₦1.57bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	13	10	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,377	2,800	₦22.6bn	₦21.5bn
4.0	5,768	1,609	₦3.48bn	₦3.44bn
2.0	4,741	1,450	₦3.31bn	₦3.09bn
0.0	3,222	867	₦109m	₦109m
1.0	2,141	563	₦402m	₦400m
5.0	1	1	₦3.84m	₦3.84m