Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Ido-Osi, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Ido-Osi has 34,775 buildings with a viable rooftop and 821 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,775

Usable roof area

3.65 km²

821 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35bn/yr

31 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ido-Osi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦34.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.8tn

NPV₦281bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy20.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity90.2 MWp

Capex₦93.5bn

Year-one energy value₦83.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.98tn

NPV₦671bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ido-Osi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 90.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦83.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦671bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ido-Osi pays back quickly

Of the 34,164 buildings in Ido-Osi with a modelled payback, 73.6% pay back inside five years and 35.1% inside three.

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How much of Ido-Osi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ido-Osi consume 46.6 GWh/yr but want 66.7 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ido-Osi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ido-Osi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 34,164 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,775 in Ido-Osi. 29,309 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,004 (35%)

Under 5 years25,149 (74%)

Under 7 years29,295 (86%)

Under 10 years31,661 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,326 (90%)

Above 15%29,309 (84%)

Above 20%26,396 (76%)

Above 25%22,729 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

60.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

180k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ido-Osi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ido-Osi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	17,797	4,411	₦6.76bn	₦6.76bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	16,978	7,717	₦28.2bn	₦27.7bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	33,501	11,089	₦30bn	₦29.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	516	437	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	347	279	₦1.9bn	₦1.84bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	169	142	₦63.9m	₦63.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	129	108	₦266m	₦264m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	90	57	₦84.2m	₦84.2m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	17	13	₦28.4m	₦28.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	5	3	₦13.1m	₦13.1m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦121k	₦121k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,977	4,796	₦15.6bn	₦15.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	7,582	2,527	₦395m	₦392m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	5,718	1,804	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,727	1,652	₦16bn	₦15.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	3,724	1,326	₦417m	₦417m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	47	23	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	15,165	6,482	₦18.3bn	₦18.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	15,161	3,798	₦7.36bn	₦7.36bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	2,687	1,182	₦5.7bn	₦5.63bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	1,762	666	₦3.67bn	₦3.22bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	8,326	3,992	₦25.4bn	₦24.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	7,981	1,689	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	6,676	3,014	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	6,356	638	₦494m	₦494m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,141	1,748	₦241m	₦241m	21%	5.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	286	253	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	65%	1.6 yr
Institutional	270	218	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	169	142	₦63.9m	₦63.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	134	111	₦295m	₦295m	69%	1.6 yr
School	107	87	₦234m	₦234m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	68	54	₦138m	₦136m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	45	33	₦342m	₦337m	39%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,775	12,128	₦35bn	₦34.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	33,989	11,471	₦31bn	₦30.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	476	387	₦2.16bn	₦2.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	310	270	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	12,224	4,656	₦26bn	₦25.5bn
2.0	9,733	3,253	₦4.47bn	₦4.38bn
4.0	6,267	1,568	₦3.81bn	₦3.81bn
0.0	4,037	1,752	₦242m	₦242m
1.0	2,479	884	₦274m	₦273m
5.0	30	15	₦223m	₦223m
6.0	5	0	₦9.06m	₦9.06m