Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Efon, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Efon has 12,727 buildings with a viable rooftop and 276 MWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

12,727

Usable roof area

1.23 km²

276 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.5bn/yr

12.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Efon

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦780bn

NPV₦120bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy9.41 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity44.2 MWp

Capex₦46.6bn

Year-one energy value₦40.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.91tn

NPV₦322bn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Efon's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 44.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦46.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦40.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦322bn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Efon pays back quickly

Of the 12,626 buildings in Efon with a modelled payback, 76.4% pay back inside five years and 27.8% inside three.

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How much of Efon's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Efon consume 21.3 GWh/yr but want 30.7 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Efon

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Efon actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 12,626 buildings with a modelled result out of 12,727 in Efon. 10,774 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,507 (28%)

Under 5 years9,644 (76%)

Under 7 years10,772 (85%)

Under 10 years11,315 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%11,219 (88%)

Above 15%10,774 (85%)

Above 20%10,041 (79%)

Above 25%8,529 (67%)

CO₂ avoided

27.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.38 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.41 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

131k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Efon.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Efon

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	7,495	1,484	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	25%	4.1 yr
E	5,208	2,014	₦11.9bn	₦11.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	24	0	₦20.4m	₦20.4m	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,314	3,279	₦14.4bn	₦14bn	25%	4.1 yr
Anchor	175	93	₦620m	₦611m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	125	64	₦308m	₦308m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	50	31	₦94.5m	₦93.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	47	18	₦29m	₦29m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	9	7	₦14.5m	₦14.5m	45%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	6	5	₦7.25m	₦7.25m	59%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦533k	₦533k	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,084	1,461	₦6.65bn	₦6.41bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	2,719	693	₦153m	₦149m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	2,175	518	₦718m	₦694m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	1,650	401	₦187m	₦187m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,088	418	₦7.14bn	₦6.94bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	11	7	₦671m	₦671m	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	9,484	2,525	₦8.98bn	₦8.97bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	1,856	225	₦1.93bn	₦1.62bn	9%	8.9 yr
Urban	902	497	₦3.78bn	₦3.64bn	61%	1.6 yr
Rural	485	251	₦831m	₦831m	57%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	6,203	1,146	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	2,243	988	₦11.5bn	₦11.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	2,215	769	₦1.08bn	₦1.06bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	1,638	372	₦50.8m	₦50.8m	7%	14.6 yr
Institutional	137	72	₦309m	₦309m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	48	27	₦121m	₦121m	61%	1.6 yr
School	41	26	₦65.5m	₦65.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	40	19	₦279m	₦274m	29%	3.9 yr
Industrial Site	34	19	₦68.7m	₦68.7m	59%	1.6 yr
Clinic	34	15	₦92m	₦92m	29%	3.9 yr
Worship Center	16	6	₦7.36m	₦7.36m	33%	3.1 yr
Place Of Worship	16	6	₦5.64m	₦5.64m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	12,727	3,498	₦15.5bn	₦15.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	12,491	3,365	₦14.8bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	225	124	₦715m	₦704m	45%	2.4 yr
SME High	11	9	₦24.5m	₦24.5m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	4,932	907	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn
3.0	3,323	1,236	₦11bn	₦11bn
2.0	1,990	767	₦2.29bn	₦1.9bn
0.0	1,651	375	₦51.7m	₦51.7m
1.0	830	213	₦209m	₦195m
5.0	1	0	₦657k	₦657k