Ekiti State

Rooftop solar in Emure, Ekiti: what the roofs are worth

Emure has 12,482 buildings with a viable rooftop and 252 MWp of roof capacity. 39% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

12,482

Usable roof area

1.12 km²

252 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.3bn/yr

16.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Emure

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦929bn

NPV₦148bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy11.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity50.1 MWp

Capex₦52.7bn

Year-one energy value₦48.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.3tn

NPV₦390bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Emure's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 50.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦52.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦48.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦390bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Emure pays back quickly

Of the 12,436 buildings in Emure with a modelled payback, 74.6% pay back inside five years and 39.4% inside three.

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How much of Emure's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Emure consume 24.3 GWh/yr but want 35.5 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Emure

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Emure actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 12,436 buildings with a modelled result out of 12,482 in Emure. 10,082 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,894 (39%)

Under 5 years9,283 (75%)

Under 7 years10,079 (81%)

Under 10 years10,756 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%10,584 (85%)

Above 15%10,082 (81%)

Above 20%9,540 (76%)

Above 25%8,758 (70%)

CO₂ avoided

32.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

126k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Emure.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Emure

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	6,315	2,236	₦13.6bn	₦12.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	6,167	2,680	₦5.64bn	₦5.64bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,055	4,566	₦18bn	₦16.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	165	149	₦617m	₦617m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	130	109	₦357m	₦357m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	92	67	₦209m	₦205m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	34	20	₦48.6m	₦48.6m	49%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	4	4	₦3.36m	₦3.36m	55%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1	0	₦16.7k	₦16.7k	31%	3.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦2.35m	₦2.35m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	3,906	1,765	₦8.49bn	₦7.72bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	3,464	1,330	₦220m	₦209m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	2,433	681	₦1.02bn	₦1000m	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	1,501	500	₦200m	₦200m	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,173	637	₦9.14bn	₦8.83bn	45%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	5	3	₦201m	₦201m	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	6,882	3,210	₦9.03bn	₦8.88bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	2,604	251	₦1.74bn	₦1.27bn	23%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,482	678	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	781	496	₦5.12bn	₦4.91bn	73%	1.4 yr
Rural	733	281	₦1.92bn	₦1.65bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	3,765	1,332	₦1.53bn	₦1.49bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	3,126	1,473	₦15.5bn	₦14.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	2,548	707	₦80.4m	₦80.4m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,628	743	₦705m	₦705m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	979	309	₦197m	₦197m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	142	116	₦379m	₦379m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	62	56	₦162m	₦162m	79%	1.4 yr
School	52	46	₦87.3m	₦87.3m	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	49	34	₦111m	₦110m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	23	22	₦177m	₦177m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	21	18	₦128m	₦128m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	20	17	₦68.4m	₦66.8m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	12,482	4,916	₦19.3bn	₦18.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	12,214	4,693	₦18.4bn	₦17.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	257	216	₦826m	₦823m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	11	7	₦13.4m	₦13.4m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	3,481	1,788	₦15.2bn	₦14.3bn
2.0	3,312	1,299	₦2.71bn	₦2.58bn
0.0	2,559	710	₦80.7m	₦80.7m
1.0	1,975	562	₦355m	₦347m
4.0	1,154	556	₦877m	₦877m
5.0	1	1	₦24.1m	₦24.1m