Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Abia State: buildings, spend and payback

958,405 buildings in Abia State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦879bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 36% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

958,405

Usable roof area

101 km²

22.6 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦879bn/yr

795 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦879bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦861bn

Lifetime cash saved₦45.2tn

NPV₦6.73tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy602 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.88 GWp

Capex₦2.84tn

Year-one energy value₦2.14tn

Lifetime energy value₦101tn

NPV₦16.6tn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Abia State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.88 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.84tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.14tn/yr
NPV: ₦16.6tn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abia State pays back quickly

Of the 954,285 buildings in Abia State with a modelled payback, 69.0% pay back inside five years and 35.7% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

69.0%

Payback under 3 years

35.7%

IRR above 20%

73.0%

Under 3 years · 36%3 – 5 years · 33%5 – 7 years · 14%7 – 10 years · 8%Over 10 years · 9%

Coverage: 100% of buildings in Abia State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Abia State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abia State consume 1.48 TWh/yr but want 2.08 TWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 71%Suppressed · 29%

Energy wanted

2.08 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.48 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

602 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Abia State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 954,285 buildings with a modelled result out of 958,405 in Abia State. 795,241 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years340,630 (36%)

Under 5 years658,348 (69%)

Under 7 years793,929 (83%)

Under 10 years868,697 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%854,743 (89%)

Above 15%795,241 (83%)

Above 20%699,943 (73%)

Above 25%421,499 (44%)

Electricity billing bands in Abia State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abia State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	239,087	110,788	₦251bn	₦248bn	29%	3.9 yr
D	200,030	57,169	₦154bn	₦150bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	194,814	68,952	₦193bn	₦189bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	172,869	47,531	₦144bn	₦140bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	151,605	64,923	₦137bn	₦134bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	908,363	313,262	₦578bn	₦568bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	24,337	17,432	₦129bn	₦127bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	9,679	6,400	₦3.66bn	₦3.66bn	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	8,906	6,974	₦147bn	₦142bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	3,195	2,505	₦5.32bn	₦5.32bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3,006	2,264	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	484	299	₦744m	₦743m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	335	173	₦3.66bn	₦3.24bn	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	57	31	₦237m	₦237m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	37	20	₦46.8m	₦46.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	6	3	₦24.4m	₦24.4m	31%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	331,405	120,639	₦282bn	₦277bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	224,450	76,519	₦49.5bn	₦48.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	164,754	56,605	₦9.01bn	₦8.49bn	15%	6.9 yr
30 50m2	124,791	42,532	₦12.5bn	₦11.7bn	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	111,197	51,854	₦392bn	₦386bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	1,808	1,214	₦134bn	₦129bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	486,177	202,017	₦435bn	₦428bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	269,988	72,268	₦224bn	₦221bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	123,177	50,177	₦123bn	₦123bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	64,210	18,608	₦80.3bn	₦75.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	14,853	6,293	₦15.9bn	₦15.5bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	260,088	79,827	₦52.1bn	₦51.1bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	224,214	75,871	₦366bn	₦359bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	148,544	41,121	₦5.71bn	₦5.71bn	11%	9.4 yr
Residential Informal	137,346	65,274	₦89bn	₦88.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	118,954	42,741	₦55.3bn	₦54.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	13,849	6,200	₦7.47bn	₦6.59bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	9,538	6,299	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	9,054	6,512	₦55.1bn	₦54.3bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	7,683	6,046	₦122bn	₦120bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	6,518	4,438	₦34.9bn	₦34.6bn	45%	2.4 yr
Duplex	4,597	1,985	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	2,950	2,351	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	951,122	344,007	₦812bn	₦794bn
Industrial	4,263	3,296	₦57.4bn	₦56.6bn
Retail	2,699	1,990	₦9.76bn	₦9.72bn
Commercial	243	36	₦544m	₦526m
Farmland	67	32	₦43.1m	₦43.1m
Farmyard	10	2	₦1.3m	₦1.3m
Orchard	1	0	₦768	₦768

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	930,434	328,939	₦629bn	₦618bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	16,464	11,482	₦92.9bn	₦91.8bn	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	11,507	8,942	₦158bn	₦152bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	398,879	143,974	₦510bn	₦499bn
4.0	220,495	94,431	₦260bn	₦256bn
2.0	156,877	54,160	₦39.4bn	₦38.1bn
0.0	146,304	39,520	₦5.54bn	₦5.54bn
1.0	27,035	11,869	₦3.59bn	₦3.58bn
5.0	6,913	4,218	₦30.5bn	₦29.9bn
6.0	1,902	1,191	₦30.5bn	₦29.8bn