Abia State

Rooftop solar in Aba North, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Aba North has 58,595 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.8 GWp of roof capacity. 52% run a generator, and together they spend ₦65.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

58,595

Usable roof area

7.99 km²

1.8 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦65.7bn/yr

49.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.9 yr

Median IRR 37% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Aba North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦65.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦65.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.65tn

NPV₦517bn

Median IRR37%

Median payback2.9 yr

Unlocked energy76.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity240 MWp

Capex₦228bn

Year-one energy value₦136bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.33tn

NPV₦997bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Aba North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 240 MWp
Capital cost: ₦228bn
Year 1 savings: ₦136bn/yr
NPV: ₦997bn
Median IRR: 73%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Aba North pays back quickly

Of the 58,530 buildings in Aba North with a modelled payback, 89.4% pay back inside five years and 50.1% inside three.

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How much of Aba North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Aba North consume 171 GWh/yr but want 248 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Aba North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Aba North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 58,530 buildings with a modelled result out of 58,595 in Aba North. 56,042 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years29,314 (50%)

Under 5 years52,345 (89%)

Under 7 years56,049 (96%)

Under 10 years57,670 (99%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%57,493 (98%)

Above 15%56,042 (96%)

Above 20%53,592 (91%)

Above 25%49,026 (84%)

CO₂ avoided

136 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

76.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

135k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Aba North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Aba North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	54,262	26,950	₦62bn	₦61.4bn	33%	3.1 yr
B	4,267	3,331	₦3.66bn	₦3.61bn	51%	2.1 yr
C	66	51	₦100m	₦100m	79%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	53,770	27,446	₦24.2bn	₦24.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial General	2,570	1,517	₦15.6bn	₦15.5bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	943	637	₦23.5bn	₦23bn	47%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	736	372	₦181m	₦181m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	243	155	₦244m	₦244m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	129	75	₦1.31bn	₦1.27bn	39%	2.9 yr
Industrial	102	68	₦444m	₦425m	47%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	61	33	₦74.3m	₦74.3m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	19	14	₦90.9m	₦90.9m	43%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	19	12	₦25m	₦25m	39%	2.9 yr
Automotive	3	3	₦23.5m	₦23.5m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	17,058	8,784	₦9.4bn	₦9.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
250 1000m2	12,586	6,510	₦29.8bn	₦29.7bn	39%	2.9 yr
50 100m2	11,819	6,161	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	37%	2.9 yr
Under 30m2	9,901	5,025	₦543m	₦541m	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	6,949	3,671	₦629m	₦629m	35%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	282	181	₦23.4bn	₦23bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	57,034	29,444	₦55.3bn	₦54.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	1,561	888	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	39%	2.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	40,048	19,349	₦18.6bn	₦18.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Shed	3,416	2,195	₦281m	₦281m	45%	2.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,366	1,892	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Residential Small	3,290	1,892	₦463m	₦463m	33%	3.1 yr
Residential	2,955	1,751	₦3.51bn	₦3.51bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,058	583	₦5.72bn	₦5.68bn	39%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	736	369	₦142m	₦142m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	575	385	₦21.2bn	₦20.9bn	39%	2.6 yr
Apartment	514	264	₦112m	₦112m	43%	2.6 yr
Unknown	441	298	₦3.31bn	₦3.31bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	398	193	₦3.16bn	₦3.12bn	37%	2.9 yr
School	307	214	₦778m	₦778m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	56,735	29,011	₦51.5bn	₦50.9bn
Retail	1,257	848	₦3.84bn	₦3.82bn
Industrial	603	473	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	55,935	28,755	₦32.2bn	₦32.1bn	33%	3.1 yr
SME High	1,634	890	₦9.68bn	₦9.58bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	1,026	687	₦23.8bn	₦23.3bn	47%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	32,089	15,481	₦49.3bn	₦48.8bn
3.0	13,017	7,230	₦5.78bn	₦5.78bn
2.0	7,816	4,193	₦842m	₦842m
0.0	2,534	1,769	₦238m	₦238m
1.0	1,863	991	₦88.1m	₦88.1m
5.0	786	429	₦3.55bn	₦3.54bn
6.0	490	239	₦5.9bn	₦5.79bn