Abia State

Rooftop solar in Obi Nwga, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Obi Nwga has 107,795 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.36 GWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦43.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

107,795

Usable roof area

10.5 km²

2.36 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦43.4bn/yr

40.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obi Nwga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦43.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦43bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.34tn

NPV₦336bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy44.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity201 MWp

Capex₦187bn

Year-one energy value₦131bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.14tn

NPV₦997bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Obi Nwga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 201 MWp
Capital cost: ₦187bn
Year 1 savings: ₦131bn/yr
NPV: ₦997bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obi Nwga pays back quickly

Of the 106,916 buildings in Obi Nwga with a modelled payback, 55.5% pay back inside five years and 29.5% inside three.

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How much of Obi Nwga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obi Nwga consume 89.8 GWh/yr but want 135 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Obi Nwga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obi Nwga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 106,916 buildings with a modelled result out of 107,795 in Obi Nwga. 78,960 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years31,498 (29%)

Under 5 years59,386 (56%)

Under 7 years78,690 (74%)

Under 10 years91,504 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%89,323 (83%)

Above 15%78,960 (73%)

Above 20%64,257 (60%)

Above 25%34,346 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

82.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

44.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

197k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obi Nwga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Obi Nwga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	26,711	15,249	₦19.1bn	₦19bn	37%	2.9 yr
B	25,874	9,314	₦8.09bn	₦8.05bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	20,751	3,539	₦8.27bn	₦8.18bn	19%	5.6 yr
D	17,525	2,320	₦2.73bn	₦2.7bn	15%	6.6 yr
E	16,934	2,944	₦5.13bn	₦5.13bn	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	101,141	27,906	₦18bn	₦17.9bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	3,265	2,675	₦13.4bn	₦13.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,749	1,444	₦405m	₦405m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	770	641	₦9.41bn	₦9.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	532	417	₦1.56bn	₦1.54bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	265	224	₦435m	₦435m	53%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	62	49	₦104m	₦104m	47%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	10	9	₦103m	₦102m	47%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦488k	₦488k	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	36,632	11,367	₦13.5bn	₦13.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	24,118	6,491	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn	19%	5.9 yr
Under 30m2	21,874	6,577	₦773m	₦761m	11%	8.4 yr
30 50m2	14,138	4,059	₦777m	₦775m	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	10,903	4,773	₦18bn	₦17.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	130	99	₦7.93bn	₦7.84bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	49,031	23,052	₦27.3bn	₦27bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	48,215	7,756	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn	19%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	7,741	1,618	₦2.85bn	₦2.85bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,974	827	₦1.28bn	₦1.27bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	834	113	₦109m	₦109m	15%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	30,760	6,258	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	17%	6.1 yr
Residential	27,302	6,359	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	20,971	3,805	₦487m	₦487m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Informal	10,187	6,227	₦3.62bn	₦3.62bn	39%	2.6 yr
Residential Formal	9,676	4,263	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	25%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,748	1,443	₦405m	₦405m	43%	2.4 yr
Apartment	1,703	761	₦293m	₦293m	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial	1,646	1,242	₦8.15bn	₦7.99bn	43%	2.6 yr
Institutional	896	720	₦8.22bn	₦8.19bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	703	688	₦2.57bn	₦2.56bn	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	379	301	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	376	185	₦73.1m	₦73.1m	25%	4.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	107,518	33,154	₦42bn	₦41.7bn
Industrial	155	90	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn
Retail	122	122	₦34.8m	₦34.8m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	104,137	30,370	₦21.7bn	₦21.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	2,418	1,986	₦10.9bn	₦10.7bn	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	1,240	1,010	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	46,046	12,905	₦20.5bn	₦20.5bn
0.0	21,077	3,832	₦504m	₦504m
2.0	18,608	4,920	₦1.49bn	₦1.46bn
4.0	17,162	9,197	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn
1.0	3,591	1,565	₦281m	₦281m
5.0	1,011	741	₦3.54bn	₦3.5bn
6.0	300	206	₦4.68bn	₦4.56bn