Abia State

Rooftop solar in Bende, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Bende has 55,498 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.18 GWp of roof capacity. 42% run a generator, and together they spend ₦71.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

55,498

Usable roof area

5.25 km²

1.18 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦71.3bn/yr

65.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bende

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦71.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦69.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.58tn

NPV₦558bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy31.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity171 MWp

Capex₦179bn

Year-one energy value₦157bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.48tn

NPV₦1.26tn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bende's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 171 MWp
Capital cost: ₦179bn
Year 1 savings: ₦157bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.26tn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bende pays back quickly

Of the 55,379 buildings in Bende with a modelled payback, 73.2% pay back inside five years and 42.3% inside three.

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How much of Bende's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bende consume 86.9 GWh/yr but want 118 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bende

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bende actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 55,379 buildings with a modelled result out of 55,498 in Bende. 47,403 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years23,447 (42%)

Under 5 years40,521 (73%)

Under 7 years47,351 (86%)

Under 10 years51,348 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%50,520 (91%)

Above 15%47,403 (85%)

Above 20%42,973 (77%)

Above 25%28,581 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

116 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

40.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

31.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

302k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bende.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Bende

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	22,441	9,893	₦26.8bn	₦26.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	16,417	6,743	₦22.4bn	₦21.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	15,846	6,116	₦19.9bn	₦19.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	794	700	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	53,940	22,068	₦61.4bn	₦60.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	494	436	₦2.55bn	₦2.55bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	444	402	₦5.35bn	₦4.64bn	73%	1.4 yr
Industrial	296	259	₦1.4bn	₦1.39bn	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	292	259	₦537m	₦537m	61%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	17	15	₦40.1m	₦40.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	13	13	₦4.54m	₦4.54m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	0	₦1.33m	₦1.33m	27%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,512	8,132	₦27.9bn	₦27.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	15,281	6,000	₦5.56bn	₦5.54bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	8,664	3,504	₦663m	₦657m	15%	6.9 yr
30 50m2	7,893	3,070	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,113	2,719	₦33.4bn	₦32.4bn	53%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	35	27	₦2.6bn	₦2.24bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	24,829	11,143	₦29.2bn	₦28.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	16,935	7,318	₦26.4bn	₦25.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	5,913	2,458	₦5.67bn	₦5.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,667	1,730	₦7.04bn	₦6.55bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	3,154	803	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	22,586	9,564	₦8.34bn	₦8.33bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	15,713	7,495	₦50.7bn	₦49.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	9,087	3,322	₦487m	₦487m	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,975	1,490	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	520	463	₦3.47bn	₦3.25bn	57%	1.9 yr
Duplex	258	74	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	250	91	₦81.9m	₦81.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Industrial Site	205	177	₦1.05bn	₦1.04bn	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	153	137	₦766m	₦766m	79%	1.4 yr
School	126	113	₦369m	₦369m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	102	89	₦110m	₦110m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	94	85	₦64.2m	₦64.2m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	55,498	23,452	₦71.3bn	₦69.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	54,704	22,739	₦64bn	₦63.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	734	656	₦6.72bn	₦6.01bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	60	57	₦481m	₦481m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	25,931	12,266	₦62.3bn	₦60.8bn
2.0	12,970	5,636	₦5.44bn	₦5.43bn
0.0	9,157	3,353	₦505m	₦505m
4.0	5,940	1,569	₦2.57bn	₦2.56bn
1.0	1,492	620	₦231m	₦231m
5.0	7	7	₦145m	₦145m
6.0	1	1	₦22.5m	₦22.5m