Abia State

Rooftop solar in Aba South, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Aba South has 65,359 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.78 GWp of roof capacity. 73% run a generator, and together they spend ₦153bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

65,359

Usable roof area

7.92 km²

1.78 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦153bn/yr

129 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.4 yr

Median IRR 45% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Aba South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦153bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦149bn

Lifetime cash saved₦7.67tn

NPV₦1.1tn

Median IRR45%

Median payback2.4 yr

Unlocked energy71.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity354 MWp

Capex₦353bn

Year-one energy value₦217bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.2tn

NPV₦1.6tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Aba South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 354 MWp
Capital cost: ₦353bn
Year 1 savings: ₦217bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.6tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Aba South pays back quickly

Of the 65,356 buildings in Aba South with a modelled payback, 96.1% pay back inside five years and 71.8% inside three.

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How much of Aba South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Aba South consume 258 GWh/yr but want 330 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Aba South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Aba South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 65,356 buildings with a modelled result out of 65,359 in Aba South. 64,636 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years46,914 (72%)

Under 5 years62,782 (96%)

Under 7 years64,619 (99%)

Under 10 years65,085 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%65,017 (99%)

Above 15%64,636 (99%)

Above 20%63,596 (97%)

Above 25%48,713 (75%)

CO₂ avoided

258 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

73.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

71.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

330k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Aba South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Aba South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	40,936	29,927	₦78.2bn	₦76.9bn	43%	2.6 yr
B	16,700	12,618	₦52.4bn	₦50.8bn	47%	2.4 yr
C	7,254	5,403	₦22.6bn	₦21.2bn	57%	1.9 yr
E	469	25	₦155m	₦155m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	61,645	44,836	₦117bn	₦114bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	1,801	1,570	₦18.4bn	₦18bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	867	645	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	679	623	₦14.6bn	₦13.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	188	167	₦578m	₦578m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	98	72	₦765m	₦732m	45%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	44	28	₦101m	₦101m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	23	19	₦286m	₦273m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	11	10	₦70.9m	₦70.3m	43%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	3	3	₦3.91m	₦3.91m	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	21,503	15,849	₦49.5bn	₦48.4bn	45%	2.4 yr
50 100m2	15,053	11,185	₦9.31bn	₦8.9bn	45%	2.4 yr
250 1000m2	11,187	8,405	₦73.8bn	₦72.8bn	45%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,072	7,148	₦1.62bn	₦1.41bn	43%	2.6 yr
30 50m2	7,341	5,214	₦2.69bn	₦2.01bn	43%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	203	172	₦16.4bn	₦15.5bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	62,969	46,648	₦143bn	₦140bn	45%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	1,379	1,052	₦9.3bn	₦7.63bn	45%	2.4 yr
Urban	1,011	273	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	35,517	24,664	₦52.3bn	₦51.5bn	43%	2.6 yr
Residential Formal	13,609	10,909	₦31.8bn	₦31.4bn	47%	2.4 yr
Shed	3,938	2,988	₦424m	₦424m	45%	2.4 yr
Residential Small	2,834	1,858	₦3.49bn	₦3.35bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential	2,687	1,898	₦22.3bn	₦21.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	2,245	1,854	₦5.19bn	₦4.31bn	47%	2.4 yr
Duplex	800	656	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	47%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	729	550	₦352m	₦352m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	640	559	₦7.9bn	₦7.62bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	508	457	₦6bn	₦5.87bn	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	462	417	₦12.7bn	₦12.3bn	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	230	213	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	64,129	46,977	₦147bn	₦143bn
Retail	929	770	₦5.47bn	₦5.45bn
Industrial	301	226	₦903m	₦902m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	63,252	46,141	₦123bn	₦120bn	43%	2.4 yr
SME High	1,345	1,150	₦15.1bn	₦14.7bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	762	682	₦15.1bn	₦13.9bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	37,905	28,351	₦102bn	₦99.8bn
3.0	14,530	10,277	₦34.1bn	₦32.6bn
2.0	7,242	4,956	₦3.03bn	₦2.89bn
0.0	2,787	2,026	₦286m	₦286m
1.0	1,955	1,552	₦294m	₦294m
5.0	800	689	₦8.11bn	₦8.06bn
6.0	140	122	₦5.41bn	₦5.05bn