Abia State

Rooftop solar in Isiala-Ngwa North, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Isiala-Ngwa North has 56,905 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.22 GWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

56,905

Usable roof area

5.41 km²

1.22 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.7bn/yr

25.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Isiala-Ngwa North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.42tn

NPV₦218bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy20.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity131 MWp

Capex₦133bn

Year-one energy value₦117bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.54tn

NPV₦932bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Isiala-Ngwa North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 131 MWp
Capital cost: ₦133bn
Year 1 savings: ₦117bn/yr
NPV: ₦932bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Isiala-Ngwa North pays back quickly

Of the 56,675 buildings in Isiala-Ngwa North with a modelled payback, 56.8% pay back inside five years and 23.0% inside three.

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How much of Isiala-Ngwa North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Isiala-Ngwa North consume 40 GWh/yr but want 60.7 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Isiala-Ngwa North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Isiala-Ngwa North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 56,675 buildings with a modelled result out of 56,905 in Isiala-Ngwa North. 42,278 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,024 (23%)

Under 5 years32,201 (57%)

Under 7 years42,175 (74%)

Under 10 years48,073 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%46,673 (82%)

Above 15%42,278 (74%)

Above 20%35,341 (62%)

Above 25%14,853 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

48.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

266k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Isiala-Ngwa North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Isiala-Ngwa North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	21,407	5,322	₦11.4bn	₦11.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
E	19,979	4,420	₦9.17bn	₦8.84bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	15,118	3,180	₦6.8bn	₦6.74bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	401	76	₦344m	₦344m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	54,669	11,323	₦20.4bn	₦19.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,147	879	₦4.39bn	₦4.39bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	554	377	₦100m	₦100m	43%	2.6 yr
Anchor	388	323	₦2.45bn	₦2.43bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	113	71	₦265m	₦263m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	20	19	₦46m	₦46m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	12	4	₦7.15m	₦7.15m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦2.32m	₦2.32m	53%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,058	4,558	₦11.6bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	13,559	2,873	₦1.94bn	₦1.81bn	21%	5.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,659	2,349	₦335m	₦333m	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	7,484	1,639	₦426m	₦426m	11%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	5,115	1,559	₦12.5bn	₦12.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	30	20	₦884m	₦884m	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	22,859	4,799	₦9.21bn	₦9.06bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	17,959	3,504	₦8.5bn	₦8.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	11,893	3,830	₦7.4bn	₦7.23bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	4,194	865	₦2.56bn	₦2.19bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	20,981	4,300	₦2.6bn	₦2.46bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential	19,366	4,313	₦17.3bn	₦16.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	13,460	2,479	₦331m	₦331m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Formal	739	198	₦153m	₦153m	25%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	554	377	₦100m	₦100m	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial	489	350	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	338	291	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	295	233	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	132	111	₦542m	₦542m	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	101	67	₦255m	₦253m	67%	1.6 yr
School	93	78	₦264m	₦264m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	66	53	₦851m	₦841m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	56,905	12,998	₦27.7bn	₦27bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	55,579	11,965	₦21.6bn	₦20.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	840	646	₦3.39bn	₦3.39bn	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	486	387	₦2.7bn	₦2.68bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	30,467	6,834	₦21.8bn	₦21.3bn
0.0	13,499	2,482	₦333m	₦333m
2.0	10,119	2,472	₦2.09bn	₦1.93bn
1.0	1,407	507	₦154m	₦154m
4.0	1,030	445	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn
5.0	318	205	₦545m	₦545m
6.0	65	53	₦381m	₦381m