Abia State

Rooftop solar in Umuahia South, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Umuahia South has 59,508 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.33 GWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦44.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

59,508

Usable roof area

5.93 km²

1.33 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦44.8bn/yr

38.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Umuahia South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦44.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦44.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.35tn

NPV₦349bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy35.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity161 MWp

Capex₦156bn

Year-one energy value₦117bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.5tn

NPV₦902bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Umuahia South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 161 MWp
Capital cost: ₦156bn
Year 1 savings: ₦117bn/yr
NPV: ₦902bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Umuahia South pays back quickly

Of the 59,266 buildings in Umuahia South with a modelled payback, 72.2% pay back inside five years and 33.0% inside three.

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How much of Umuahia South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Umuahia South consume 77.3 GWh/yr but want 113 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Umuahia South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Umuahia South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 59,266 buildings with a modelled result out of 59,508 in Umuahia South. 52,047 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years19,572 (33%)

Under 5 years42,762 (72%)

Under 7 years51,976 (88%)

Under 10 years55,911 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%55,353 (93%)

Above 15%52,047 (87%)

Above 20%45,515 (76%)

Above 25%26,646 (45%)

CO₂ avoided

82 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

218k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Umuahia South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Umuahia South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	29,394	8,993	₦18.4bn	₦18.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	11,371	4,248	₦13.1bn	₦12.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	11,008	3,456	₦3.38bn	₦3.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	5,244	2,014	₦5.97bn	₦5.93bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	2,491	1,203	₦3.91bn	₦3.9bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	55,017	17,820	₦30.9bn	₦30.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,466	1,112	₦7.64bn	₦7.63bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,209	407	₦171m	₦171m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	445	334	₦5.04bn	₦4.97bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	174	113	₦343m	₦343m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	168	113	₦611m	₦609m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	27	15	₦25.8m	₦25.8m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦298k	₦298k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	21,190	7,060	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	12,981	4,152	₦2.76bn	₦2.73bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,947	3,500	₦617m	₦515m	17%	6.1 yr
30 50m2	8,111	2,542	₦697m	₦694m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	6,226	2,629	₦19.9bn	₦19.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	53	31	₦4.06bn	₦4.06bn	47%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	52,326	16,711	₦34.1bn	₦33.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	5,464	2,512	₦7.8bn	₦7.75bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,718	691	₦2.86bn	₦2.79bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	16,000	6,597	₦3.75bn	₦3.62bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	13,577	5,900	₦24.6bn	₦24.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	13,351	2,441	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	7,562	2,354	₦308m	₦308m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,693	79	₦139m	₦139m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,209	407	₦171m	₦171m	33%	3.4 yr
Apartment	1,152	294	₦172m	₦172m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	1,122	314	₦2.4bn	₦2.4bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	858	443	₦3.58bn	₦3.57bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	636	137	₦90.4m	₦90.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	399	293	₦4.16bn	₦4.16bn	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	155	117	₦572m	₦572m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	59,412	19,854	₦44.3bn	₦43.8bn
Farmland	60	27	₦36.3m	₦36.3m
Commercial	34	33	₦421m	₦402m
Farmyard	2	0	₦354k	₦354k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	56,922	18,716	₦33.2bn	₦32.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,011	773	₦6.02bn	₦6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	575	425	₦5.54bn	₦5.48bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	21,878	8,895	₦30.4bn	₦30bn
4.0	16,807	3,661	₦6.08bn	₦5.99bn
2.0	10,354	3,888	₦2.89bn	₦2.82bn
0.0	7,607	2,372	₦317m	₦317m
1.0	1,527	669	₦222m	₦216m
5.0	1,106	335	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn
6.0	229	94	₦2.57bn	₦2.55bn