Abia State

Rooftop solar in Ohafia, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Ohafia has 58,463 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.46 GWp of roof capacity. 46% run a generator, and together they spend ₦86.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

58,463

Usable roof area

6.5 km²

1.46 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦86.9bn/yr

79.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ohafia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦86.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦84bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.3tn

NPV₦673bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy36.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity188 MWp

Capex₦196bn

Year-one energy value₦171bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.11tn

NPV₦1.36tn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ohafia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 188 MWp
Capital cost: ₦196bn
Year 1 savings: ₦171bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.36tn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ohafia pays back quickly

Of the 58,333 buildings in Ohafia with a modelled payback, 76.0% pay back inside five years and 45.8% inside three.

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How much of Ohafia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ohafia consume 106 GWh/yr but want 143 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ohafia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ohafia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 58,333 buildings with a modelled result out of 58,463 in Ohafia. 51,324 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years26,712 (46%)

Under 5 years44,312 (76%)

Under 7 years51,247 (88%)

Under 10 years55,212 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,642 (93%)

Above 15%51,324 (88%)

Above 20%46,533 (80%)

Above 25%32,999 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

140 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

48.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

36.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

319k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ohafia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ohafia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	22,783	11,250	₦33.1bn	₦32.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	17,762	7,854	₦25.5bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	12,262	5,885	₦25.3bn	₦24.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	5,656	1,769	₦2.98bn	₦2.97bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	57,044	25,455	₦75bn	₦72.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	614	569	₦5.55bn	₦5.52bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	484	439	₦5.31bn	₦4.44bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	118	105	₦275m	₦274m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	103	95	₦65.6m	₦65.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	75	70	₦502m	₦498m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	14	14	₦54.4m	₦54.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	11	11	₦209m	₦181m	51%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,402	9,822	₦33.4bn	₦32.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	13,997	5,659	₦4.59bn	₦4.48bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	8,355	3,742	₦626m	₦621m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	8,132	4,406	₦44.2bn	₦43.2bn	57%	1.9 yr
30 50m2	7,524	3,093	₦996m	₦983m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	53	36	₦3.15bn	₦2.47bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	28,417	12,774	₦33.6bn	₦32.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	11,842	4,561	₦15.7bn	₦15.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	10,828	5,968	₦25.1bn	₦24.7bn	59%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	5,304	2,314	₦9.88bn	₦8.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,072	1,141	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	19,032	6,470	₦6.72bn	₦6.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	14,891	8,207	₦60.7bn	₦58.8bn	61%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	14,086	6,914	₦6.3bn	₦6.17bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	6,618	3,006	₦461m	₦461m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Informal	1,048	291	₦280m	₦280m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,007	425	₦364m	₦364m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	354	324	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	346	136	₦115m	₦115m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	211	207	₦2.98bn	₦2.95bn	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	170	160	₦976m	₦976m	79%	1.4 yr
School	131	119	₦476m	₦476m	77%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	103	95	₦65.6m	₦65.6m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	58,463	26,758	₦86.9bn	₦84bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	57,675	26,024	₦78bn	₦76bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	558	508	₦5.8bn	₦4.93bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	230	226	₦3.08bn	₦3.05bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	24,210	12,929	₦70.4bn	₦67.7bn
4.0	19,262	6,768	₦11.3bn	₦11.3bn
2.0	7,375	3,570	₦4.36bn	₦4.16bn
0.0	6,609	3,001	₦459m	₦459m
1.0	1,004	487	₦287m	₦287m
5.0	3	3	₦75.6m	₦73.3m