Abia State

Rooftop solar in Umu-Nneochi, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Umu-Nneochi has 45,544 buildings with a viable rooftop and 953 MWp of roof capacity. 24% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,544

Usable roof area

4.25 km²

953 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.3bn/yr

25.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Umu-Nneochi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.34tn

NPV₦210bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy19.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity113 MWp

Capex₦114bn

Year-one energy value₦102bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.85tn

NPV₦819bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Umu-Nneochi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 113 MWp
Capital cost: ₦114bn
Year 1 savings: ₦102bn/yr
NPV: ₦819bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Umu-Nneochi pays back quickly

Of the 45,252 buildings in Umu-Nneochi with a modelled payback, 58.8% pay back inside five years and 24.2% inside three.

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How much of Umu-Nneochi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Umu-Nneochi consume 37.3 GWh/yr but want 57.2 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Umu-Nneochi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Umu-Nneochi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,252 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,544 in Umu-Nneochi. 34,085 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,934 (24%)

Under 5 years26,603 (59%)

Under 7 years34,029 (75%)

Under 10 years39,088 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,026 (83%)

Above 15%34,085 (75%)

Above 20%28,873 (63%)

Above 25%17,361 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

45.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

222k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Umu-Nneochi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Umu-Nneochi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	19,069	5,627	₦11.1bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	18,178	4,391	₦13.1bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	8,297	902	₦2.11bn	₦2.1bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	43,138	9,078	₦18.7bn	₦18.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,321	1,035	₦4.43bn	₦4.43bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	641	446	₦125m	₦125m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	330	282	₦2.83bn	₦2.74bn	67%	1.4 yr
Industrial	108	74	₦247m	₦246m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	4	3	₦5.28m	₦5.28m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	2	2	₦4.35m	₦4.35m	57%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	16,681	4,146	₦11.3bn	₦11.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	10,916	2,461	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,126	1,792	₦256m	₦256m	9%	13.4 yr
30 50m2	6,156	1,397	₦391m	₦391m	13%	8.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,631	1,105	₦11.2bn	₦10.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	34	19	₦1.35bn	₦1.28bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	18,062	5,816	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	14,418	1,451	₦3.32bn	₦3.3bn	19%	5.4 yr
Urban	10,685	3,003	₦9.48bn	₦9.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,379	650	₦2.64bn	₦2.35bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	16,607	3,657	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential	13,978	3,448	₦15.8bn	₦15.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,415	1,729	₦232m	₦232m	9%	12.9 yr
Residential Formal	3,524	198	₦271m	₦271m	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial	726	534	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	45%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	641	446	₦125m	₦125m	45%	2.4 yr
Apartment	409	29	₦41.8m	₦41.8m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	322	276	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	261	219	₦1.63bn	₦1.56bn	57%	1.9 yr
Duplex	168	9	₦13m	₦13m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	109	94	₦480m	₦480m	83%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	86	60	₦213m	₦213m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,504	10,890	₦26.2bn	₦25.6bn
Industrial	40	30	₦93.2m	₦93.2m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,066	9,757	₦19.9bn	₦19.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,052	813	₦3.39bn	₦3.39bn	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	426	350	₦3.05bn	₦2.96bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	25,516	6,336	₦21.7bn	₦21.1bn
0.0	8,445	1,736	₦235m	₦235m
2.0	6,243	1,655	₦983m	₦983m
4.0	3,979	422	₦1.65bn	₦1.65bn
1.0	670	282	₦103m	₦103m
5.0	626	442	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn
6.0	65	47	₦340m	₦340m