Abia State

Rooftop solar in Ukwa East, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Ukwa East has 21,874 buildings with a viable rooftop and 461 MWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

21,874

Usable roof area

2.05 km²

461 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.2bn/yr

19.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ukwa East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦19.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.01tn

NPV₦157bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy10.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity66.2 MWp

Capex₦68.5bn

Year-one energy value₦59bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.8tn

NPV₦469bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ukwa East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 66.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦68.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦59bn/yr
NPV: ₦469bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ukwa East pays back quickly

Of the 21,766 buildings in Ukwa East with a modelled payback, 59.6% pay back inside five years and 31.2% inside three.

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How much of Ukwa East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ukwa East consume 25.5 GWh/yr but want 35.8 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ukwa East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ukwa East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 21,766 buildings with a modelled result out of 21,874 in Ukwa East. 15,852 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,791 (31%)

Under 5 years12,967 (60%)

Under 7 years15,806 (73%)

Under 10 years17,880 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,405 (80%)

Above 15%15,852 (72%)

Above 20%13,969 (64%)

Above 25%6,841 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

33 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

127k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ukwa East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ukwa East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	8,704	2,479	₦6.6bn	₦6.45bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	7,095	1,657	₦6.54bn	₦6.32bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	6,075	2,652	₦7.04bn	₦6.98bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	21,186	6,160	₦15.7bn	₦15.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	254	233	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	207	189	₦2.12bn	₦1.88bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	158	145	₦279m	₦278m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	32	28	₦176m	₦175m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	31	27	₦12m	₦12m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	6	6	₦7.66m	₦7.66m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	7,077	2,208	₦6.67bn	₦6.49bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	5,149	1,463	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	23%	4.9 yr
Under 30m2	4,467	1,293	₦240m	₦238m	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	3,045	891	₦296m	₦296m	11%	8.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,118	920	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	18	13	₦550m	₦443m	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	9,032	2,146	₦7.51bn	₦7.43bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,109	3,682	₦10bn	₦9.95bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	2,995	375	₦1.39bn	₦1.21bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	1,738	585	₦1.27bn	₦1.16bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	7,880	2,424	₦1.83bn	₦1.66bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	7,173	2,166	₦13.1bn	₦13.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	5,217	1,013	₦141m	₦141m	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Formal	912	555	₦560m	₦560m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	192	178	₦1.06bn	₦955m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	86	76	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	62	59	₦436m	₦436m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	60	54	₦81.7m	₦81.7m	61%	1.6 yr
School	49	46	₦159m	₦159m	77%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	47	44	₦35.5m	₦35.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	43	39	₦934m	₦854m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	32	28	₦328m	₦275m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	21,850	6,785	₦20.2bn	₦19.7bn
Industrial	23	3	₦19.6m	₦19.6m
Orchard	1	0	₦768	₦768

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	21,544	6,490	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	238	216	₦2.29bn	₦2.05bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	92	82	₦1.12bn	₦1.11bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	10,118	3,526	₦16.3bn	₦16.1bn
0.0	5,221	1,015	₦143m	₦143m
2.0	4,541	1,361	₦1.95bn	₦1.78bn
1.0	1,229	400	₦186m	₦186m
4.0	764	485	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn
5.0	1	1	₦91.5m	₦90.1m