Abia State

Rooftop solar in Ukwa West, Abia: what the roofs are worth

Ukwa West has 34,408 buildings with a viable rooftop and 784 MWp of roof capacity. 40% run a generator, and together they spend ₦47bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,408

Usable roof area

3.49 km²

784 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦47bn/yr

48.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ukwa West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦47bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦46.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.37tn

NPV₦352bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy33.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity163 MWp

Capex₦149bn

Year-one energy value₦99.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.63tn

NPV₦748bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ukwa West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 163 MWp
Capital cost: ₦149bn
Year 1 savings: ₦99.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦748bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ukwa West pays back quickly

Of the 34,176 buildings in Ukwa West with a modelled payback, 66.8% pay back inside five years and 39.3% inside three.

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How much of Ukwa West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ukwa West consume 94.1 GWh/yr but want 127 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ukwa West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ukwa West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 34,176 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,408 in Ukwa West. 28,182 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,432 (39%)

Under 5 years22,834 (67%)

Under 7 years28,101 (82%)

Under 10 years30,953 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,451 (88%)

Above 15%28,182 (82%)

Above 20%24,300 (71%)

Above 25%14,088 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

80.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

120k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ukwa West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ukwa West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	9,735	4,598	₦7.65bn	₦7.57bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	7,000	3,019	₦25.6bn	₦25.3bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	6,865	2,789	₦5.01bn	₦4.97bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	6,331	1,681	₦4.38bn	₦4.37bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	4,477	1,602	₦4.44bn	₦4.42bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,275	11,008	₦13.9bn	₦13.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,644	1,433	₦9.41bn	₦9.31bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	933	736	₦212m	₦212m	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	307	294	₦22.8bn	₦22.5bn	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	141	135	₦217m	₦217m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	80	63	₦426m	₦424m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	25	17	₦36.5m	₦36.5m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦2.03m	₦2.03m	29%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦537k	₦537k	43%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,310	4,529	₦8.91bn	₦8.87bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	8,322	3,107	₦1.72bn	₦1.71bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	6,921	2,558	₦340m	₦339m	15%	6.6 yr
30 50m2	4,815	1,858	₦441m	₦441m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,949	1,559	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	43%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	91	78	₦22.4bn	₦22.1bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	19,875	7,111	₦30.3bn	₦30bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	10,665	5,410	₦9.62bn	₦9.53bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	3,169	960	₦6.72bn	₦6.65bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	691	204	₦354m	₦354m	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	8	4	₦15.7m	₦15.7m	23%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	13,427	4,690	₦1.89bn	₦1.88bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	10,354	3,928	₦11.5bn	₦11.5bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	7,335	2,237	₦296m	₦296m	15%	6.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	932	736	₦212m	₦212m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	715	609	₦5.19bn	₦5.08bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	662	595	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn	53%	2.1 yr
Institutional	287	265	₦21.9bn	₦21.7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	153	150	₦166m	₦166m	39%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	104	101	₦591m	₦591m	75%	1.4 yr
School	85	82	₦174m	₦174m	73%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	65	52	₦363m	₦361m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	51	49	₦52.4m	₦52.4m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,920	13,221	₦29.5bn	₦29.3bn
Industrial	488	468	₦17.6bn	₦17.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,630	12,119	₦16bn	₦15.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	1,405	1,223	₦7.86bn	₦7.76bn	53%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	373	347	₦23.2bn	₦22.9bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	17,832	7,436	₦30.3bn	₦30.2bn
0.0	7,325	2,222	₦293m	₦293m
2.0	6,330	2,330	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn
1.0	1,676	885	₦229m	₦229m
4.0	911	517	₦12.3bn	₦12bn
5.0	272	245	₦2.1bn	₦2.05bn
6.0	62	54	₦691m	₦691m