Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Taraba State: buildings, spend and payback

2,045,663 buildings in Taraba State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦189bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 9% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,045,663

Usable roof area

58.1 km²

12.8 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦189bn/yr

164 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

15.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Taraba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦189bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦185bn

Lifetime cash saved₦9.99tn

NPV₦1.45tn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.9 yr

Unlocked energy197 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.12 GWp

Capex₦1.17tn

Year-one energy value₦1.08tn

Lifetime energy value₦51.2tn

NPV₦8.68tn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Taraba State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.12 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.17tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.08tn/yr
NPV: ₦8.68tn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Taraba State pays back quickly

Of the 1,980,642 buildings in Taraba State with a modelled payback, 22.0% pay back inside five years and 8.6% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

22.0%

Payback under 3 years

8.6%

IRR above 20%

22.9%

Under 3 years · 9%3 – 5 years · 13%5 – 7 years · 8%7 – 10 years · 8%Over 10 years · 62%

Coverage: 97% of buildings in Taraba State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Taraba State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Taraba State consume 364 GWh/yr but want 561 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 65%Suppressed · 35%

Energy wanted

561 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

364 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

197 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Taraba State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,980,642 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,045,663 in Taraba State. 588,854 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years170,606 (9%)

Under 5 years435,215 (22%)

Under 7 years589,633 (30%)

Under 10 years746,616 (38%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%711,121 (35%)

Above 15%588,854 (29%)

Above 20%468,595 (23%)

Above 25%379,604 (19%)

Electricity billing bands in Taraba State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Taraba State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	762,702	49,315	₦44.9bn	₦43.2bn	5%	16.9 yr
E	642,961	43,340	₦40.9bn	₦39.6bn	5%	16.9 yr
C	310,489	27,912	₦33.6bn	₦33.3bn	7%	14.4 yr
B	235,225	33,433	₦45bn	₦44.3bn	17%	6.1 yr
A	94,286	20,063	₦24.8bn	₦24bn	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,967,482	137,385	₦117bn	₦113bn	5%	16.1 yr
Commercial Retail	45,334	18,091	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	22,193	10,399	₦36.6bn	₦36.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	6,783	5,209	₦30.3bn	₦29.4bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	2,562	2,127	₦760m	₦760m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	1,076	761	₦874m	₦872m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	127	51	₦66.5m	₦66.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	86	30	₦467m	₦441m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	14	5	₦27.3m	₦27.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	6	5	₦4.7m	₦4.7m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,350,557	77,094	₦8.37bn	₦8.23bn	5%	17.9 yr
50 100m2	271,567	32,946	₦23.8bn	₦23.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	266,437	27,315	₦6.85bn	₦6.59bn	9%	9.6 yr
100 250m2	135,733	28,217	₦59bn	₦57.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	20,737	8,099	₦62.9bn	₦61.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	632	392	₦28.3bn	₦27.4bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	1,071,713	52,666	₦70.9bn	₦67.8bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	299,990	36,184	₦19.9bn	₦19.7bn	7%	14.6 yr
Urban	259,150	32,785	₦38.7bn	₦38.2bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	220,207	32,885	₦39.6bn	₦38.8bn	17%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	194,603	19,543	₦20.2bn	₦20bn	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,339,482	59,045	₦5.9bn	₦5.9bn	5%	17.6 yr
Residential Small	267,832	33,709	₦23.7bn	₦22.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	155,975	29,901	₦80.6bn	₦78bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	132,873	12,332	₦5.41bn	₦5.36bn	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	68,647	2,068	₦1.26bn	₦1.19bn	13%	7.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	45,331	18,092	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	10,825	3,816	₦21.7bn	₦21.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	5,325	4,208	₦23bn	₦22.7bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	5,208	2,205	₦8.93bn	₦8.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	2,333	1,886	₦2.86bn	₦2.86bn	79%	1.4 yr
Apartment	1,678	222	₦77.5m	₦77.5m	25%	4.1 yr
Market	1,646	961	₦160m	₦160m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,043,940	173,663	₦188bn	₦184bn
Farmland	1,349	179	₦225m	₦225m
Industrial	240	209	₦489m	₦489m
Retail	97	0	₦282k	₦282k
Farmyard	21	10	₦49.3m	₦49.3m
Orchard	10	2	₦1.05m	₦1.05m
Commercial	6	0	₦207k	₦207k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,021,674	162,046	₦127bn	₦124bn	5%	15.9 yr
SME High	16,227	6,094	₦30.8bn	₦30.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	7,762	5,923	₦31.1bn	₦30.3bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,337,527	59,777	₦5.93bn	₦5.93bn
2.0	253,097	36,350	₦32.2bn	₦31.2bn
3.0	203,148	39,459	₦107bn	₦104bn
1.0	140,894	28,390	₦10.2bn	₦9.6bn
4.0	102,388	8,169	₦15.9bn	₦15.8bn
5.0	7,698	1,568	₦9.02bn	₦8.98bn
6.0	911	350	₦9.38bn	₦9.17bn