Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Ibi, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Ibi has 68,132 buildings with a viable rooftop and 348 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.53bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

68,132

Usable roof area

1.57 km²

348 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.53bn/yr

6.49 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.53bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.33bn

Lifetime cash saved₦380bn

NPV₦56.8bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.07 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity28.5 MWp

Capex₦31.5bn

Year-one energy value₦29.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.39tn

NPV₦236bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ibi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 28.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦31.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦29.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦236bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibi pays back quickly

Of the 65,463 buildings in Ibi with a modelled payback, 18.4% pay back inside five years and 11.8% inside three.

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How much of Ibi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibi consume 11.2 GWh/yr but want 16.3 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 65,463 buildings with a modelled result out of 68,132 in Ibi. 14,563 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,746 (12%)

Under 5 years12,072 (18%)

Under 7 years14,566 (22%)

Under 10 years17,284 (26%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%16,531 (24%)

Above 15%14,563 (21%)

Above 20%12,662 (19%)

Above 25%11,184 (16%)

CO₂ avoided

13.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.86 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.07 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

90.5k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	24,992	2,027	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	3%	18.4 yr
E	24,386	1,438	₦899m	₦747m	3%	18.6 yr
C	9,415	1,373	₦1.02bn	₦984m	5%	17.4 yr
B	9,339	3,271	₦3.92bn	₦3.9bn	21%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	67,605	7,655	₦6.36bn	₦6.17bn	5%	17.9 yr
Anchor	219	193	₦856m	₦848m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	158	142	₦33.2m	₦33.2m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	121	103	₦237m	₦237m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	14	13	₦22.9m	₦22.4m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	10	0	₦394k	₦394k	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	3	1	₦6.96m	₦6.96m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦6.51m	₦6.46m	57%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	49,140	2,875	₦279m	₦276m	3%	19.1 yr
30 50m2	7,620	1,344	₦275m	₦275m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	7,230	1,924	₦1.11bn	₦1.09bn	25%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	3,685	1,687	₦3.35bn	₦3.18bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	447	271	₦1.92bn	₦1.91bn	55%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	10	8	₦594m	₦594m	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	42,683	1,832	₦2.63bn	₦2.44bn	3%	19.4 yr
Rural	10,567	1,771	₦638m	₦638m	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,080	3,274	₦3.22bn	₦3.21bn	21%	3.9 yr
Urban	5,802	1,232	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	50,148	2,309	₦212m	₦212m	3%	18.9 yr
Residential Small	8,242	2,926	₦1.57bn	₦1.55bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	3,815	1,658	₦4.33bn	₦4.16bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,967	0	₦7.16m	₦7.16m	1%	16.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,290	676	₦223m	₦223m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	173	151	₦741m	₦741m	53%	2.1 yr
Apartment	111	67	₦19.2m	₦19.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	78	71	₦74.2m	₦74.2m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	55	49	₦6.91m	₦6.91m	55%	1.9 yr
School	55	49	₦69.4m	₦69.4m	75%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	48	44	₦4.63m	₦4.63m	55%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	41	34	₦166m	₦158m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	68,132	8,109	₦7.53bn	₦7.33bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	67,894	7,900	₦6.63bn	₦6.44bn	5%	17.9 yr
Enterprise	233	206	₦879m	₦870m	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	5	3	₦13.6m	₦13.6m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	49,698	2,356	₦214m	₦214m
3.0	6,176	2,612	₦5.51bn	₦5.48bn
2.0	5,897	1,837	₦1.26bn	₦1.11bn
4.0	3,328	670	₦267m	₦267m
1.0	3,032	633	₦259m	₦248m
5.0	1	1	₦6.87m	₦6.87m