Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Ardo-Kola, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Ardo-Kola has 136,712 buildings with a viable rooftop and 754 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

136,712

Usable roof area

3.42 km²

754 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.9bn/yr

19.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ardo-Kola

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦974bn

NPV₦144bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.9 yr

Unlocked energy17.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity82.1 MWp

Capex₦80bn

Year-one energy value₦64.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.03tn

NPV₦503bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ardo-Kola's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 82.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦80bn
Year 1 savings: ₦64.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦503bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ardo-Kola pays back quickly

Of the 133,884 buildings in Ardo-Kola with a modelled payback, 23.8% pay back inside five years and 12.5% inside three.

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How much of Ardo-Kola's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ardo-Kola consume 36.1 GWh/yr but want 53.8 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ardo-Kola

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ardo-Kola actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 133,884 buildings with a modelled result out of 136,712 in Ardo-Kola. 42,347 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,769 (13%)

Under 5 years31,911 (24%)

Under 7 years42,415 (32%)

Under 10 years53,468 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%51,326 (38%)

Above 15%42,347 (31%)

Above 20%33,940 (25%)

Above 25%28,845 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

32.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.87 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

92.4k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ardo-Kola.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ardo-Kola

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	45,731	5,497	₦3.18bn	₦3.14bn	5%	17.9 yr
E	36,126	3,803	₦2.48bn	₦2.43bn	5%	17.6 yr
B	29,865	4,137	₦5.9bn	₦5.82bn	17%	5.9 yr
C	23,297	2,995	₦6.22bn	₦6.22bn	9%	12.9 yr
A	1,693	326	₦163m	₦163m	15%	6.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	122,291	10,859	₦4.3bn	₦4.22bn	5%	16.6 yr
Commercial Retail	10,307	4,142	₦579m	₦579m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	3,675	1,416	₦6.45bn	₦6.45bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	340	279	₦6.56bn	₦6.48bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	64	46	₦42.9m	₦42.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	23	13	₦5.21m	₦5.21m	51%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	7	2	₦1.36m	₦1.36m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	4	1	₦4.12m	₦4.12m	33%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦132k	₦132k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	101,043	8,763	₦814m	₦814m	5%	17.6 yr
50 100m2	13,693	2,677	₦1.29bn	₦1.27bn	23%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	13,373	2,254	₦478m	₦453m	13%	7.4 yr
100 250m2	7,210	2,347	₦4.67bn	₦4.64bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,319	663	₦4.4bn	₦4.32bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	74	54	₦6.29bn	₦6.29bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	74,117	4,951	₦7.32bn	₦7.23bn	3%	18.4 yr
Dense Urban	32,220	5,169	₦3.32bn	₦3.32bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	16,819	3,643	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	9%	13.1 yr
Urban	13,545	2,995	₦5.71bn	₦5.64bn	17%	6.1 yr
Urban Centre	11	0	₦331k	₦331k	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	89,679	5,141	₦455m	₦455m	5%	17.9 yr
Residential Small	12,677	2,381	₦981m	₦926m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	10,308	4,142	₦579m	₦579m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential	10,291	2,719	₦2.71bn	₦2.68bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	5,396	615	₦140m	₦140m	13%	6.4 yr
Residential Formal	4,207	0	₦18.2m	₦18.2m	9%	8.4 yr
Commercial	1,893	835	₦4.51bn	₦4.51bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	802	284	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	37%	2.9 yr
Market	736	111	₦23.9m	₦23.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	249	198	₦6bn	₦6bn	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	105	87	₦107m	₦107m	79%	1.4 yr
School	68	57	₦63.2m	₦63.2m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	136,657	16,709	₦17.9bn	₦17.7bn
Industrial	55	49	₦53m	₦53m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	133,609	15,315	₦5.33bn	₦5.25bn	5%	16.1 yr
SME High	2,702	1,121	₦6.01bn	₦6.01bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	401	322	₦6.6bn	₦6.53bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	89,794	5,219	₦458m	₦458m
2.0	18,246	3,143	₦1.45bn	₦1.41bn
3.0	10,912	3,242	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn
1.0	10,021	4,452	₦798m	₦751m
4.0	6,627	582	₦3.7bn	₦3.7bn
5.0	990	86	₦820m	₦820m
6.0	122	34	₦450m	₦450m