Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Bali, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Bali has 255,154 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.07 GWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

255,154

Usable roof area

4.91 km²

1.07 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.4bn/yr

8.94 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bali

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.99bn

Lifetime cash saved₦549bn

NPV₦74.2bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.6 yr

Unlocked energy12.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.7 MWp

Capex₦100bn

Year-one energy value₦94.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.48tn

NPV₦762bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bali's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦100bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦762bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bali pays back quickly

Of the 244,737 buildings in Bali with a modelled payback, 14.4% pay back inside five years and 4.7% inside three.

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How much of Bali's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bali consume 20.4 GWh/yr but want 33.1 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bali

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bali actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 244,737 buildings with a modelled result out of 255,154 in Bali. 46,125 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,392 (5%)

Under 5 years35,200 (14%)

Under 7 years46,168 (19%)

Under 10 years59,345 (24%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%55,453 (22%)

Above 15%46,125 (18%)

Above 20%37,689 (15%)

Above 25%31,057 (12%)

CO₂ avoided

20.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.24 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

269k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bali.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bali

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	120,134	4,684	₦4.2bn	₦3.98bn	5%	17.6 yr
E	103,207	5,502	₦4.23bn	₦4.1bn	5%	17.6 yr
C	31,813	1,111	₦1.95bn	₦1.92bn	5%	16.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	239,091	5,628	₦6.37bn	₦5.99bn	5%	17.9 yr
Commercial Retail	12,167	3,970	₦655m	₦655m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	2,923	921	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	464	369	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	354	306	₦98.7m	₦98.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	144	99	₦118m	₦118m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	10	4	₦4.8m	₦4.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦60.2k	₦60.2k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	195,048	5,776	₦806m	₦806m	3%	18.6 yr
30 50m2	29,380	2,296	₦685m	₦685m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	22,711	2,021	₦1.89bn	₦1.77bn	23%	4.9 yr
100 250m2	6,902	849	₦2.65bn	₦2.42bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,076	332	₦2.75bn	₦2.72bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	37	23	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	179,119	3,759	₦5.82bn	₦5.6bn	3%	18.9 yr
Rural	33,140	5,012	₦1.81bn	₦1.79bn	9%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	31,908	1,504	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	13%	7.6 yr
Urban	10,987	1,022	₦1.67bn	₦1.52bn	9%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	193,710	2,858	₦470m	₦470m	3%	18.6 yr
Residential Small	23,022	1,333	₦1.57bn	₦1.45bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	13,071	1,436	₦4.27bn	₦4.01bn	15%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	12,167	3,970	₦655m	₦655m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,687	0	₦35.4m	₦35.4m	11%	8.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,532	0	₦33m	₦33m	11%	7.9 yr
Commercial	1,742	525	₦560m	₦560m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	769	74	₦323m	₦323m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	486	383	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	152	129	₦125m	₦125m	79%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	136	96	₦63.5m	₦63.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	124	109	₦20.3m	₦20.3m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	255,148	11,297	₦10.4bn	₦9.99bn
Commercial	6	0	₦207k	₦207k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	252,025	10,227	₦7.43bn	₦7.04bn	5%	17.6 yr
SME High	2,522	603	₦888m	₦888m	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	607	467	₦2.06bn	₦2.06bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	193,873	2,999	₦477m	₦477m
2.0	24,129	2,339	₦2.29bn	₦2.06bn
3.0	16,945	1,977	₦6.06bn	₦5.91bn
1.0	12,596	3,789	₦844m	₦829m
4.0	6,333	77	₦365m	₦365m
5.0	1,247	113	₦290m	₦290m
6.0	31	3	₦57.3m	₦57.3m