Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Takum, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Takum has 129,319 buildings with a viable rooftop and 915 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

129,319

Usable roof area

4.17 km²

915 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.5bn/yr

8.88 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Takum

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦642bn

NPV₦89.9bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.4 yr

Unlocked energy16.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.5 MWp

Capex₦95bn

Year-one energy value₦84.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.02tn

NPV₦678bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Takum's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦95bn
Year 1 savings: ₦84.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦678bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Takum pays back quickly

Of the 122,122 buildings in Takum with a modelled payback, 20.4% pay back inside five years and 7.3% inside three.

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How much of Takum's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Takum consume 26.1 GWh/yr but want 42.5 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Takum

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Takum actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 122,122 buildings with a modelled result out of 129,319 in Takum. 32,044 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,891 (7%)

Under 5 years24,962 (20%)

Under 7 years32,054 (26%)

Under 10 years40,013 (33%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,448 (30%)

Above 15%32,044 (25%)

Above 20%26,540 (21%)

Above 25%22,113 (17%)

CO₂ avoided

24.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.28 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

296k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Takum.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Takum

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	47,355	1,846	₦1.89bn	₦1.84bn	5%	17.1 yr
E	43,412	2,502	₦2.95bn	₦2.92bn	5%	16.9 yr
C	29,559	3,238	₦3.53bn	₦3.53bn	7%	9.9 yr
B	8,779	847	₦2.82bn	₦2.73bn	15%	6.4 yr
A	214	165	₦263m	₦263m	35%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	123,136	5,338	₦6.21bn	₦6.03bn	5%	16.6 yr
Commercial Retail	3,284	1,735	₦318m	₦318m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	2,264	1,073	₦3.49bn	₦3.49bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	518	393	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	67	37	₦25.1m	₦25.1m	35%	2.9 yr
Industrial	43	22	₦29.6m	₦29.6m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	6	0	₦2.03m	₦2.03m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦96.6k	₦96.6k	29%	3.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	80,854	3,331	₦415m	₦410m	5%	17.9 yr
50 100m2	18,890	1,701	₦1.35bn	₦1.34bn	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	18,054	1,477	₦391m	₦381m	7%	13.9 yr
100 250m2	9,951	1,490	₦3.85bn	₦3.72bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,531	575	₦4.54bn	₦4.51bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	39	24	₦915m	₦915m	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	67,301	1,898	₦3.38bn	₦3.2bn	5%	17.6 yr
Urban Centre	21,067	1,769	₦3.37bn	₦3.37bn	9%	7.6 yr
Urban	19,532	3,055	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	7%	15.4 yr
Rural	11,019	1,120	₦944m	₦944m	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,400	756	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	9%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	84,559	1,860	₦255m	₦255m	5%	17.6 yr
Residential Small	17,446	1,730	₦1.06bn	₦1.04bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	8,827	1,318	₦4.68bn	₦4.52bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	8,609	0	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	3%	13.1 yr
Residential Informal	3,396	430	₦175m	₦175m	9%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,284	1,735	₦318m	₦318m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	1,437	705	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	536	145	₦584m	₦584m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	313	233	₦889m	₦889m	53%	2.1 yr
Apartment	213	0	₦1.51m	₦1.51m	17%	6.4 yr
Educational Facility	192	162	₦202m	₦202m	77%	1.4 yr
School	112	87	₦69m	₦69m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	129,301	8,598	₦11.5bn	₦11.3bn
Farmland	18	0	₦482k	₦482k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	126,790	7,338	₦6.92bn	₦6.74bn	5%	16.4 yr
SME High	1,978	849	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	551	411	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	84,559	1,876	₦256m	₦256m
3.0	13,569	2,581	₦5.7bn	₦5.59bn
2.0	12,963	1,914	₦1.72bn	₦1.67bn
4.0	9,474	199	₦502m	₦502m
1.0	7,492	1,539	₦525m	₦509m
5.0	1,094	407	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn
6.0	168	82	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn