Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Sardauna, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Sardauna has 134,762 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.55 GWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

134,762

Usable roof area

6.97 km²

1.55 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.1bn/yr

14.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sardauna

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦957bn

NPV₦147bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy19.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity128 MWp

Capex₦138bn

Year-one energy value₦150bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.17tn

NPV₦1.24tn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Sardauna's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 128 MWp
Capital cost: ₦138bn
Year 1 savings: ₦150bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.24tn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sardauna pays back quickly

Of the 132,737 buildings in Sardauna with a modelled payback, 44.7% pay back inside five years and 11.2% inside three.

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How much of Sardauna's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sardauna consume 29.6 GWh/yr but want 49 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sardauna

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sardauna actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 132,737 buildings with a modelled result out of 134,762 in Sardauna. 72,415 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,929 (11%)

Under 5 years59,270 (45%)

Under 7 years72,502 (55%)

Under 10 years85,772 (65%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%81,350 (60%)

Above 15%72,415 (54%)

Above 20%63,136 (47%)

Above 25%50,769 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

35.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.03 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

574k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sardauna.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sardauna

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	57,374	6,630	₦7.04bn	₦6.99bn	17%	6.1 yr
E	48,680	5,033	₦7.77bn	₦7.62bn	13%	7.1 yr
C	28,529	3,228	₦3.06bn	₦3.06bn	21%	5.1 yr
B	179	119	₦195m	₦195m	55%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	133,422	13,771	₦15.6bn	₦15.4bn	17%	5.9 yr
Commercial General	615	570	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	361	337	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	162	152	₦46.6m	₦46.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	139	128	₦170m	₦170m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	49	45	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	11	6	₦5.02m	₦5.02m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	1	₦792k	₦792k	35%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦276k	₦276k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	42,860	4,925	₦3.51bn	₦3.44bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	36,376	2,718	₦324m	₦284m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	30,898	3,189	₦715m	₦715m	9%	9.9 yr
100 250m2	22,121	3,420	₦7.02bn	₦6.96bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,479	747	₦5.8bn	₦5.78bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	28	11	₦690m	₦690m	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	107,730	11,611	₦14.9bn	₦14.7bn	19%	5.9 yr
Rural	16,120	2,554	₦2.33bn	₦2.31bn	17%	6.4 yr
Urban	5,925	827	₦707m	₦707m	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,987	18	₦134m	₦134m	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	52,287	3,898	₦372m	₦372m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	45,879	4,756	₦3.47bn	₦3.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	19,259	3,488	₦11bn	₦10.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	13,286	1,247	₦682m	₦616m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,206	198	₦71.2m	₦71.2m	27%	4.1 yr
Apartment	1,056	132	₦47.5m	₦47.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	454	423	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	57%	1.9 yr
Duplex	353	43	₦17.7m	₦17.7m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	162	152	₦46.6m	₦46.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	135	124	₦163m	₦163m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	123	112	₦482m	₦482m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	117	114	₦180m	₦180m	87%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	134,240	15,005	₦18bn	₦17.8bn
Farmland	513	3	₦46.8m	₦46.8m
Orchard	9	2	₦888k	₦888k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	134,089	14,394	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	17%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	500	465	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	173	151	₦558m	₦558m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	52,382	3,907	₦375m	₦375m
2.0	26,822	3,924	₦4.86bn	₦4.8bn
3.0	21,810	3,598	₦9.96bn	₦9.91bn
1.0	19,196	2,006	₦1.54bn	₦1.49bn
4.0	14,518	1,549	₦1.01bn	₦964m
5.0	33	25	₦304m	₦304m
6.0	1	1	₦20.5m	₦20.5m