Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Lau, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Lau has 74,559 buildings with a viable rooftop and 297 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.27bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,559

Usable roof area

1.36 km²

297 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.27bn/yr

5.36 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lau

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.27bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.02bn

Lifetime cash saved₦322bn

NPV₦48.1bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.4 yr

Unlocked energy6.27 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity35.8 MWp

Capex₦38.6bn

Year-one energy value₦39.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.86tn

NPV₦320bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Lau's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 35.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦38.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦39.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦320bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lau pays back quickly

Of the 73,845 buildings in Lau with a modelled payback, 20.8% pay back inside five years and 11.6% inside three.

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How much of Lau's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lau consume 10.4 GWh/yr but want 16.6 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lau

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lau actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 73,845 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,559 in Lau. 18,773 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,600 (12%)

Under 5 years15,333 (21%)

Under 7 years18,800 (25%)

Under 10 years23,256 (31%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,242 (30%)

Above 15%18,773 (25%)

Above 20%16,032 (22%)

Above 25%14,296 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

11.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.95 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.27 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

126k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lau.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Lau

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	28,782	3,390	₦2.26bn	₦2.16bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	26,795	2,877	₦1.88bn	₦1.76bn	5%	17.1 yr
C	15,001	1,380	₦1.25bn	₦1.22bn	7%	15.4 yr
B	3,981	1,201	₦881m	₦881m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	71,634	7,351	₦4.89bn	₦4.64bn	5%	16.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2,038	830	₦78.6m	₦78.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	423	252	₦486m	₦486m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	295	271	₦764m	₦764m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	152	135	₦50m	₦50m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	16	9	₦3.5m	₦3.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦65.5k	₦65.5k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	60,578	6,148	₦569m	₦544m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	6,085	924	₦282m	₦282m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	5,285	927	₦1.06bn	₦954m	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	2,224	637	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	382	209	₦2.35bn	₦2.23bn	53%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	5	3	₦206m	₦206m	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	34,260	2,216	₦2.62bn	₦2.37bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	20,992	4,210	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	7%	15.1 yr
Urban	16,260	1,424	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	7%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,047	998	₦683m	₦683m	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	56,022	4,235	₦272m	₦272m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	8,854	1,389	₦1.24bn	₦1.13bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential	6,753	1,727	₦3.38bn	₦3.23bn	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,038	830	₦78.6m	₦78.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	224	204	₦499m	₦499m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	156	39	₦101m	₦101m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	108	101	₦163m	₦163m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	88	53	₦58.8m	₦58.8m	37%	2.9 yr
School	74	68	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	56	51	₦290m	₦290m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	51	45	₦18m	₦18m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	49	43	₦5.45m	₦5.45m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	74,111	8,738	₦6.23bn	₦5.98bn
Farmland	443	110	₦37.7m	₦37.7m
Farmyard	5	0	₦35.4k	₦35.4k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	74,007	8,476	₦5.34bn	₦5.09bn	5%	16.4 yr
Enterprise	307	280	₦767m	₦767m	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	245	92	₦160m	₦160m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,063	4,269	₦274m	₦274m
2.0	8,694	1,898	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn
3.0	5,265	1,166	₦3.73bn	₦3.6bn
1.0	4,334	1,448	₦571m	₦447m
5.0	133	35	₦49.9m	₦49.9m
4.0	56	26	₦55.3m	₦55.3m
6.0	14	6	₦44.5m	₦44.5m