Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Kurmi, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Kurmi has 54,901 buildings with a viable rooftop and 435 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.69bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

54,901

Usable roof area

1.97 km²

435 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.69bn/yr

4.22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kurmi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.69bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.52bn

Lifetime cash saved₦241bn

NPV₦36bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy5.61 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity40.2 MWp

Capex₦43bn

Year-one energy value₦43.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.08tn

NPV₦357bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kurmi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 40.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦43bn
Year 1 savings: ₦43.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦357bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kurmi pays back quickly

Of the 52,812 buildings in Kurmi with a modelled payback, 27.4% pay back inside five years and 6.4% inside three.

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How much of Kurmi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kurmi consume 8.29 GWh/yr but want 13.9 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kurmi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kurmi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 52,812 buildings with a modelled result out of 54,901 in Kurmi. 19,017 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,358 (6%)

Under 5 years14,478 (27%)

Under 7 years19,026 (36%)

Under 10 years23,852 (45%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,241 (41%)

Above 15%19,017 (35%)

Above 20%15,897 (29%)

Above 25%11,634 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

9.16 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.08 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.61 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

154k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kurmi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kurmi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	25,412	1,358	₦2.45bn	₦2.39bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	22,459	1,514	₦1.91bn	₦1.79bn	9%	13.4 yr
C	7,030	443	₦327m	₦327m	7%	14.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	53,579	2,140	₦3.23bn	₦3.05bn	7%	13.9 yr
Commercial General	458	389	₦587m	₦587m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	325	289	₦678m	₦678m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	254	229	₦104m	₦104m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	237	228	₦50.8m	₦50.8m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	47	39	₦41m	₦41m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦219k	₦219k	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	24,862	982	₦126m	₦126m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	12,576	718	₦194m	₦194m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	12,140	811	₦863m	₦809m	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	4,767	637	₦1.66bn	₦1.66bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	549	162	₦1.56bn	₦1.44bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	7	5	₦278m	₦278m	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	28,883	1,142	₦2.25bn	₦2.08bn	5%	15.6 yr
Rural	15,613	1,773	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	11%	9.1 yr
Dense Urban	8,851	138	₦289m	₦289m	15%	7.1 yr
Urban	1,554	262	₦506m	₦506m	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	30,775	975	₦105m	₦105m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	13,642	703	₦828m	₦774m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	5,543	455	₦2.26bn	₦2.14bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,590	3	₦35.3m	₦35.3m	13%	7.1 yr
Institutional	295	262	₦437m	₦437m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	237	228	₦50.8m	₦50.8m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	190	146	₦240m	₦240m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	126	112	₦121m	₦121m	83%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	92	83	₦23.6m	₦23.6m	63%	1.6 yr
School	89	80	₦50.1m	₦50.1m	83%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	79	72	₦10.3m	₦10.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	51	45	₦232m	₦232m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	54,846	3,315	₦4.69bn	₦4.52bn
Farmland	55	0	₦108k	₦108k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	54,294	2,795	₦3.61bn	₦3.44bn	7%	13.6 yr
Enterprise	370	327	₦717m	₦717m	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	237	193	₦362m	₦362m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	30,829	1,000	₦108m	₦108m
2.0	9,106	780	₦1.43bn	₦1.42bn
1.0	6,846	799	₦461m	₦424m
3.0	5,785	702	₦2.48bn	₦2.36bn
4.0	2,315	34	₦187m	₦187m
5.0	20	0	₦18m	₦18m