Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Gashaka, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Gashaka has 65,074 buildings with a viable rooftop and 410 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.68bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

65,074

Usable roof area

1.86 km²

410 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.68bn/yr

7.85 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gashaka

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.68bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.46bn

Lifetime cash saved₦386bn

NPV₦59.4bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.6 yr

Unlocked energy5.42 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity35.2 MWp

Capex₦37.4bn

Year-one energy value₦37.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.78tn

NPV₦306bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gashaka's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 35.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦37.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦306bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gashaka pays back quickly

Of the 61,399 buildings in Gashaka with a modelled payback, 18.2% pay back inside five years and 6.2% inside three.

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How much of Gashaka's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gashaka consume 11.9 GWh/yr but want 17.4 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gashaka

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gashaka actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 61,399 buildings with a modelled result out of 65,074 in Gashaka. 16,110 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,778 (6%)

Under 5 years11,177 (18%)

Under 7 years16,136 (26%)

Under 10 years22,063 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%20,406 (31%)

Above 15%16,110 (25%)

Above 20%12,327 (19%)

Above 25%9,190 (14%)

CO₂ avoided

12.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.64 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.42 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

119k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gashaka.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Gashaka

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	33,399	1,578	₦3.45bn	₦3.24bn	5%	15.4 yr
E	24,258	1,290	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	5%	16.1 yr
C	7,417	870	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn	7%	15.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	62,576	1,585	₦4.52bn	₦4.37bn	5%	15.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,322	1,154	₦155m	₦155m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	646	549	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	61%	1.9 yr
Anchor	268	230	₦1.79bn	₦1.72bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	170	143	₦41.4m	₦41.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	85	72	₦52.1m	₦52.1m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	6	4	₦4.6m	₦4.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦2.3m	₦2.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	39,829	1,388	₦203m	₦203m	3%	18.4 yr
30 50m2	11,270	785	₦257m	₦257m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	9,729	729	₦738m	₦738m	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	3,664	573	₦1.82bn	₦1.73bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	566	251	₦2.94bn	₦2.87bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	16	12	₦1.73bn	₦1.66bn	79%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	36,322	957	₦2.13bn	₦1.92bn	3%	18.1 yr
Dense Urban	13,819	819	₦2.96bn	₦2.96bn	15%	6.9 yr
Rural	8,562	1,388	₦865m	₦865m	9%	9.6 yr
Urban	6,371	574	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	7%	14.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	41,772	488	₦104m	₦104m	3%	17.9 yr
Residential Small	10,344	633	₦770m	₦689m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,828	0	₦25.2m	₦25.2m	11%	8.1 yr
Residential	3,804	464	₦3.6bn	₦3.53bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	1,772	0	₦20.4m	₦20.4m	15%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,322	1,154	₦155m	₦155m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	321	314	₦784m	₦784m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	266	231	₦802m	₦733m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	106	50	₦131m	₦131m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	83	71	₦108m	₦108m	85%	1.1 yr
Industrial Site	81	68	₦49.6m	₦49.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	62	51	₦7.97m	₦7.97m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	65,065	3,738	₦7.68bn	₦7.46bn
Farmland	9	0	₦11.5k	₦11.5k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	64,287	3,067	₦4.91bn	₦4.77bn	5%	15.9 yr
SME High	434	369	₦922m	₦922m	67%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	353	302	₦1.84bn	₦1.77bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	41,851	509	₦105m	₦105m
2.0	6,752	701	₦879m	₦879m
3.0	6,151	1,011	₦5.64bn	₦5.42bn
4.0	5,418	81	₦423m	₦423m
1.0	4,792	1,378	₦344m	₦344m
5.0	102	52	₦259m	₦259m
6.0	8	6	₦30.4m	₦30.4m