Taraba State

Rooftop solar in Ussa, Taraba: what the roofs are worth

Ussa has 56,598 buildings with a viable rooftop and 524 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦2.74bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

56,598

Usable roof area

2.37 km²

524 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦2.74bn/yr

2.46 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ussa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦2.74bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦2.73bn

Lifetime cash saved₦145bn

NPV₦20.9bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy3.41 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity24.4 MWp

Capex₦26.6bn

Year-one energy value₦26.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.25tn

NPV₦213bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ussa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 24.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦26.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦26.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦213bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ussa pays back quickly

Of the 55,359 buildings in Ussa with a modelled payback, 21.1% pay back inside five years and 9.7% inside three.

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How much of Ussa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ussa consume 4.81 GWh/yr but want 8.22 GWh/yr. The 42% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ussa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ussa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 55,359 buildings with a modelled result out of 56,598 in Ussa. 17,276 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,349 (10%)

Under 5 years11,678 (21%)

Under 7 years17,291 (31%)

Under 10 years24,386 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,412 (40%)

Above 15%17,276 (31%)

Above 20%13,040 (23%)

Above 25%9,479 (17%)

CO₂ avoided

5.56 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.28 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

3.41 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

85.5k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ussa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ussa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	26,857	2,594	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	7%	13.6 yr
E	22,740	2,153	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	9%	13.6 yr
C	7,001	610	₦357m	₦357m	9%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	55,704	4,529	₦1.91bn	₦1.9bn	7%	13.6 yr
Anchor	464	439	₦488m	₦488m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	270	251	₦307m	₦307m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	110	102	₦22.2m	₦22.2m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	37	26	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	13	10	₦11.2m	₦11.2m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	20,331	1,411	₦116m	₦116m	5%	17.1 yr
50 100m2	15,533	1,600	₦497m	₦497m	15%	6.6 yr
30 50m2	13,791	1,097	₦157m	₦157m	9%	13.6 yr
100 250m2	6,354	1,014	₦898m	₦897m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	578	231	₦1.03bn	₦1.02bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	11	4	₦44.3m	₦44.3m	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	23,155	1,767	₦1.34bn	₦1.33bn	7%	14.9 yr
Urban	14,696	1,482	₦565m	₦565m	9%	13.4 yr
Rural	14,072	1,598	₦722m	₦721m	11%	9.1 yr
Dense Urban	4,675	510	₦115m	₦115m	7%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	30,134	1,867	₦155m	₦155m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	18,944	1,680	₦494m	₦494m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential	6,622	982	₦1.26bn	₦1.25bn	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	293	274	₦284m	₦284m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	183	173	₦137m	₦137m	79%	1.4 yr
School	123	118	₦65.9m	₦65.9m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	81	76	₦223m	₦223m	49%	2.1 yr
Clinic	70	65	₦54.7m	₦54.7m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	38	36	₦4.53m	₦4.53m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	37	26	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	53%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	35	32	₦3.1m	₦3.1m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	12	11	₦37.9m	₦37.9m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	56,593	5,357	₦2.74bn	₦2.73bn
Farmyard	4	0	₦95.8k	₦95.8k
Orchard	1	0	₦167k	₦167k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	56,110	4,898	₦2.21bn	₦2.2bn	7%	13.6 yr
Enterprise	476	448	₦499m	₦499m	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	12	11	₦37.9m	₦37.9m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	30,152	1,881	₦155m	₦155m
2.0	11,440	1,517	₦1.06bn	₦1.05bn
3.0	8,952	1,102	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn
1.0	6,041	845	₦251m	₦251m
5.0	6	5	₦13.6m	₦13.6m
4.0	4	4	₦21.2m	₦21.2m
6.0	3	3	₦20.9m	₦20.9m