Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Yenegoa, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Yenegoa has 127,800 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.35 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦101bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

127,800

Usable roof area

14.9 km²

3.35 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦101bn/yr

80.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yenegoa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦101bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦97bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.15tn

NPV₦721bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy72.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity361 MWp

Capex₦353bn

Year-one energy value₦224bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.5tn

NPV₦1.66tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Yenegoa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 361 MWp
Capital cost: ₦353bn
Year 1 savings: ₦224bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.66tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yenegoa pays back quickly

Of the 126,928 buildings in Yenegoa with a modelled payback, 70.4% pay back inside five years and 19.1% inside three.

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How much of Yenegoa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yenegoa consume 198 GWh/yr but want 270 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yenegoa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yenegoa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 126,928 buildings with a modelled result out of 127,800 in Yenegoa. 112,918 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years24,290 (19%)

Under 5 years89,301 (70%)

Under 7 years112,669 (89%)

Under 10 years121,407 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%120,528 (94%)

Above 15%112,918 (88%)

Above 20%96,623 (76%)

Above 25%30,829 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

182 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

43 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

72.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

426k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yenegoa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yenegoa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	94,139	14,111	₦45.8bn	₦44.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	18,631	6,118	₦30.9bn	₦29.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	10,253	3,299	₦10.4bn	₦10.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	3,895	1,497	₦12.7bn	₦11.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	882	90	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	121,805	21,783	₦69.7bn	₦66.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	2,451	1,317	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	1,273	754	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	997	588	₦15.4bn	₦14.6bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	884	491	₦248m	₦248m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	221	76	₦1.61bn	₦1.53bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	62	47	₦717m	₦645m	47%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	38	19	₦69.5m	₦69.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	33	17	₦57.2m	₦57.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	32	21	₦29.2m	₦29.2m	53%	2.1 yr
Automotive	4	2	₦2.27m	₦2.27m	29%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	49,532	9,572	₦35.1bn	₦33.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	26,121	5,020	₦5.49bn	₦5.29bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	20,020	3,955	₦813m	₦797m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	16,666	3,485	₦42.6bn	₦40.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	15,057	2,943	₦1.19bn	₦1.17bn	19%	5.4 yr
Over 1000m2	404	140	₦15.6bn	₦15bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	103,672	17,419	₦51bn	₦50.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,310	3,726	₦21.8bn	₦20.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,733	1,845	₦12.8bn	₦11.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	5,157	1,494	₦9.7bn	₦9.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	928	631	₦5.49bn	₦4.95bn	59%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	37,385	3,266	₦4.07bn	₦4.03bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	21,668	6,977	₦53.1bn	₦50.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	20,876	1,278	₦3.74bn	₦3.72bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	20,306	6,152	₦7.38bn	₦7.12bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	13,034	3,377	₦626m	₦626m	19%	5.6 yr
Apartment	7,074	661	₦676m	₦676m	25%	4.6 yr
Duplex	1,462	72	₦96.9m	₦96.9m	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,184	770	₦6.4bn	₦6.4bn	39%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	883	492	₦243m	₦243m	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	823	529	₦11bn	₦10.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Place Of Worship	491	268	₦293m	₦293m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	447	261	₦374m	₦374m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	125,080	24,058	₦92bn	₦88.4bn
Industrial	1,678	739	₦5.79bn	₦5.7bn
Commercial	536	177	₦2.04bn	₦2.02bn
Retail	293	29	₦433m	₦433m
Farmland	213	112	₦523m	₦504m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	125,101	23,563	₦76.6bn	₦73.7bn	25%	4.6 yr
SME High	1,683	951	₦8.36bn	₦8.33bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,016	601	₦15.9bn	₦15bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	56,027	5,211	₦19.3bn	₦19bn
3.0	37,446	11,371	₦69.5bn	₦66.7bn
2.0	18,049	4,013	₦7.22bn	₦6.61bn
0.0	12,650	3,312	₦607m	₦607m
1.0	3,111	1,016	₦563m	₦549m
5.0	410	157	₦2.82bn	₦2.76bn
6.0	107	35	₦832m	₦832m