Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Southern Ijaw, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Southern Ijaw has 33,522 buildings with a viable rooftop and 662 MWp of roof capacity. 24% run a generator, and together they spend ₦71.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,522

Usable roof area

2.95 km²

662 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦71.9bn/yr

57.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Southern Ijaw

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦71.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦63.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.24tn

NPV₦475bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy37 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity215 MWp

Capex₦220bn

Year-one energy value₦162bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.46tn

NPV₦1.23tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Southern Ijaw's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 215 MWp
Capital cost: ₦220bn
Year 1 savings: ₦162bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.23tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Southern Ijaw pays back quickly

Of the 33,051 buildings in Southern Ijaw with a modelled payback, 69.7% pay back inside five years and 23.1% inside three.

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How much of Southern Ijaw's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Southern Ijaw consume 119 GWh/yr but want 156 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Southern Ijaw

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Southern Ijaw actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,051 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,522 in Southern Ijaw. 26,527 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,622 (23%)

Under 5 years23,021 (70%)

Under 7 years26,462 (80%)

Under 10 years27,653 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,479 (82%)

Above 15%26,527 (79%)

Above 20%23,732 (71%)

Above 25%8,272 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

114 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

32 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

37 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

509k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Southern Ijaw.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Southern Ijaw

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	11,306	3,337	₦28.4bn	₦25.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	8,297	1,781	₦21.2bn	₦17.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	6,113	228	₦2.31bn	₦2.08bn	7%	15.1 yr
B	5,082	1,610	₦13.1bn	₦12bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	2,724	1,000	₦6.92bn	₦5.94bn	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,664	6,433	₦62.8bn	₦54.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Worship	808	684	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	574	469	₦5.74bn	₦5.4bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	312	245	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	70	53	₦393m	₦336m	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	61	52	₦66.3m	₦66.3m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	30	19	₦71.1m	₦71m	43%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦142k	₦142k	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦108k	₦108k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,006	2,852	₦26bn	₦23.3bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	8,563	1,194	₦360m	₦358m	11%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	7,582	1,789	₦4.96bn	₦4.62bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	5,541	944	₦763m	₦752m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,724	1,124	₦34.7bn	₦29.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	106	53	₦5bn	₦4.73bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	11,973	3,407	₦25.1bn	₦23.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	10,041	1,174	₦19.3bn	₦15bn	9%	9.1 yr
Urban Centre	5,007	1,292	₦7.84bn	₦7.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	3,924	1,172	₦12.8bn	₦11.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	2,577	911	₦6.9bn	₦6.14bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	10,813	2,579	₦7.19bn	₦6.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	9,693	978	₦171m	₦171m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential	8,593	2,476	₦55bn	₦47.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,372	0	₦114m	₦114m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	1,119	358	₦383m	₦383m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	548	451	₦4.07bn	₦4.01bn	47%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	298	257	₦217m	₦217m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	259	213	₦215m	₦215m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	209	167	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	65%	1.6 yr
School	184	149	₦638m	₦638m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	84	69	₦420m	₦419m	41%	2.6 yr
Duplex	71	39	₦33m	₦33m	43%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,289	7,903	₦71.5bn	₦62.9bn
Industrial	233	53	₦401m	₦396m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,908	7,457	₦66bn	₦57.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	560	456	₦5.64bn	₦5.29bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	54	43	₦258m	₦257m	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	9,875	3,406	₦59.5bn	₦52.1bn
0.0	9,720	995	₦173m	₦173m
2.0	9,356	2,485	₦10.1bn	₦9.26bn
1.0	3,384	690	₦1.26bn	₦1.08bn
4.0	1,186	379	₦786m	₦729m
5.0	1	1	₦35.3m	₦35.3m