Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Ekeremor, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Ekeremor has 27,080 buildings with a viable rooftop and 474 MWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦56bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

27,080

Usable roof area

2.12 km²

474 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦56bn/yr

47.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ekeremor

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦56bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦49.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.5tn

NPV₦375bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy21.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity163 MWp

Capex₦170bn

Year-one energy value₦137bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.34tn

NPV₦1.06tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ekeremor's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 163 MWp
Capital cost: ₦170bn
Year 1 savings: ₦137bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.06tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ekeremor pays back quickly

Of the 26,472 buildings in Ekeremor with a modelled payback, 63.4% pay back inside five years and 20.7% inside three.

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How much of Ekeremor's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ekeremor consume 81.1 GWh/yr but want 102 GWh/yr. The 21% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ekeremor

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ekeremor actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 26,472 buildings with a modelled result out of 27,080 in Ekeremor. 19,246 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,489 (21%)

Under 5 years16,780 (63%)

Under 7 years19,203 (73%)

Under 10 years20,585 (78%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%20,274 (75%)

Above 15%19,246 (71%)

Above 20%17,307 (64%)

Above 25%5,778 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

84.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

26.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

425k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ekeremor.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ekeremor

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	12,641	2,996	₦34.3bn	₦31.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	8,414	817	₦11.9bn	₦9.71bn	13%	5.4 yr
C	4,897	1,661	₦8.7bn	₦7.89bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	1,067	14	₦1.13bn	₦982m	23%	4.6 yr
B	61	0	₦6.46m	₦5.97m	7%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	26,415	4,955	₦49.8bn	₦44.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Anchor	284	232	₦4.95bn	₦3.68bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	190	142	₦296m	₦293m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	175	147	₦915m	₦915m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	14	12	₦59.6m	₦57.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦759k	₦759k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	7,808	1,196	₦438m	₦427m	7%	13.9 yr
100 250m2	6,385	1,790	₦19.7bn	₦18.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	6,212	1,054	₦3.49bn	₦3.41bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	4,729	706	₦1.24bn	₦694m	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,898	724	₦27bn	₦23.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	48	18	₦4.18bn	₦3.06bn	25%	4.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	10,938	1,038	₦12bn	₦10.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	6,629	515	₦7.45bn	₦6.43bn	7%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,451	3,146	₦30.7bn	₦27.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,062	789	₦5.84bn	₦5.33bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	9,979	931	₦174m	₦174m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	8,994	1,594	₦5.96bn	₦5.31bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	6,612	1,633	₦40.5bn	₦36.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	715	691	₦2.71bn	₦2.71bn	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	234	190	₦2.1bn	₦1.78bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	106	91	₦820m	₦820m	69%	1.6 yr
School	87	75	₦225m	₦225m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	65	49	₦49.3m	₦49.3m	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	60	44	₦31.3m	₦31.3m	53%	2.1 yr
Duplex	56	54	₦275m	₦275m	49%	2.1 yr
Apartment	53	52	₦188m	₦188m	47%	2.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	43	31	₦542m	₦456m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	26,615	5,477	₦55.1bn	₦48.9bn
Industrial	465	11	₦888m	₦755m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	26,780	5,244	₦51bn	₦46bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	298	244	₦5.01bn	₦3.74bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	2	0	₦759k	₦759k	33%	3.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	9,990	938	₦175m	₦175m
3.0	7,286	2,132	₦44.9bn	₦39.6bn
2.0	6,471	1,302	₦6.26bn	₦5.77bn
1.0	2,606	410	₦1.43bn	₦859m
4.0	727	706	₦3.29bn	₦3.29bn