Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Ogbia, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Ogbia has 32,084 buildings with a viable rooftop and 800 MWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦37.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

32,084

Usable roof area

3.56 km²

800 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦37.2bn/yr

31.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogbia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦37.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.86tn

NPV₦270bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy22.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity133 MWp

Capex₦137bn

Year-one energy value₦103bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.84tn

NPV₦795bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ogbia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 133 MWp
Capital cost: ₦137bn
Year 1 savings: ₦103bn/yr
NPV: ₦795bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogbia pays back quickly

Of the 31,717 buildings in Ogbia with a modelled payback, 71.7% pay back inside five years and 21.3% inside three.

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How much of Ogbia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogbia consume 60.1 GWh/yr but want 82.1 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogbia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogbia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 31,717 buildings with a modelled result out of 32,084 in Ogbia. 28,668 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,743 (21%)

Under 5 years22,748 (72%)

Under 7 years28,612 (90%)

Under 10 years30,133 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,946 (93%)

Above 15%28,668 (89%)

Above 20%24,320 (76%)

Above 25%6,848 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

63.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

240k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogbia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ogbia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	15,536	3,116	₦14.5bn	₦14.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	11,397	2,697	₦15.6bn	₦15bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	2,871	427	₦3.95bn	₦3.07bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	2,280	514	₦3.14bn	₦3.14bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,449	6,195	₦30.2bn	₦28.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Anchor	351	324	₦5.69bn	₦5.65bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	178	156	₦1.1bn	₦1.09bn	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	70	52	₦104m	₦104m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	15	8	₦2.36m	₦2.36m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	8	8	₦40.1m	₦40.1m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	3	₦9.35m	₦9.35m	47%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	4	4	₦1.8m	₦1.8m	47%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦17.6m	₦17.6m	53%	2.1 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦3.89m	₦3.89m	49%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,137	2,363	₦13.5bn	₦12.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	7,224	1,348	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	5,497	1,074	₦245m	₦241m	17%	6.4 yr
30 50m2	4,158	848	₦421m	₦421m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,974	1,074	₦17.1bn	₦16.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	94	47	₦4.18bn	₦4.17bn	31%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	14,519	2,569	₦9.58bn	₦9.56bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	6,329	1,275	₦5.72bn	₦5.54bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	4,722	975	₦10.4bn	₦10.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	3,715	706	₦6.45bn	₦5.23bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	2,799	1,229	₦5.05bn	₦5.03bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	11,049	2,289	₦3.02bn	₦3.01bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	10,778	2,411	₦26bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	6,294	1,104	₦196m	₦196m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,652	159	₦521m	₦521m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,555	214	₦461m	₦461m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	200	179	₦3.99bn	₦3.97bn	47%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	124	116	₦901m	₦901m	69%	1.6 yr
School	112	103	₦346m	₦346m	67%	1.6 yr
Apartment	94	13	₦47.8m	₦47.8m	25%	4.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	40	37	₦732m	₦711m	45%	2.4 yr
Clinic	32	29	₦298m	₦293m	43%	2.4 yr
Duplex	27	5	₦9.89m	₦9.89m	25%	4.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	31,630	6,667	₦36.5bn	₦35bn
Industrial	406	87	₦691m	₦686m
Farmyard	33	0	₦728k	₦728k
Orchard	15	0	₦324k	₦324k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,722	6,424	₦31.5bn	₦30bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	352	323	₦5.65bn	₦5.61bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	10	7	₦64.7m	₦64.7m	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	16,372	3,585	₦31.9bn	₦31.2bn
2.0	6,317	1,543	₦3.45bn	₦2.56bn
0.0	6,295	1,104	₦196m	₦196m
4.0	2,274	297	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn
1.0	825	224	₦115m	₦110m
5.0	1	1	₦23.4m	₦23.4m