Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Brass, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Brass has 20,276 buildings with a viable rooftop and 334 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

20,276

Usable roof area

1.49 km²

334 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.5bn/yr

14.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Brass

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18bn

Lifetime cash saved₦939bn

NPV₦134bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy11.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity80.4 MWp

Capex₦83.1bn

Year-one energy value₦64.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3tn

NPV₦496bn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Brass's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 80.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦83.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦64.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦496bn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Brass pays back quickly

Of the 19,992 buildings in Brass with a modelled payback, 58.1% pay back inside five years and 11.0% inside three.

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How much of Brass's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Brass consume 31.3 GWh/yr but want 42.6 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Brass

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Brass actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 19,992 buildings with a modelled result out of 20,276 in Brass. 14,229 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,196 (11%)

Under 5 years11,623 (58%)

Under 7 years14,172 (71%)

Under 10 years15,732 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%15,544 (77%)

Above 15%14,229 (70%)

Above 20%12,262 (60%)

Above 25%2,371 (12%)

CO₂ avoided

32.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.01 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

229k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Brass.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Brass

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	7,650	1,274	₦7.61bn	₦7.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	6,092	204	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	5,480	410	₦5.28bn	₦5.04bn	9%	12.6 yr
B	1,042	315	₦3.81bn	₦3.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	12	0	₦27.6k	₦27.6k	7%	14.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	19,733	1,835	₦16.1bn	₦15.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Anchor	218	151	₦1.81bn	₦1.65bn	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	190	129	₦263m	₦263m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	123	83	₦305m	₦305m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	6	3	₦16.7m	₦16.7m	33%	2.6 yr
Industrial	6	2	₦1.61m	₦1.61m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	5,946	443	₦180m	₦179m	9%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	4,916	479	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	4,365	664	₦6.17bn	₦6.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	3,718	316	₦299m	₦299m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,298	289	₦8.85bn	₦8.36bn	25%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	33	12	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	25%	4.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	6,593	227	₦2.92bn	₦2.87bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	5,233	530	₦6.96bn	₦6.54bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,548	1,114	₦5.97bn	₦5.95bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	3,902	332	₦2.69bn	₦2.62bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	6,993	901	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	6,954	249	₦66.7m	₦66.7m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential	3,932	537	₦13.3bn	₦12.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	989	2	₦133m	₦133m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	865	146	₦318m	₦318m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	176	120	₦894m	₦894m	39%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	77	59	₦478m	₦478m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	68	47	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	45%	2.4 yr
School	64	48	₦155m	₦155m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	63	42	₦48.2m	₦48.2m	45%	2.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	36	21	₦708m	₦545m	33%	3.1 yr
Clinic	29	16	₦37.4m	₦36.8m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	20,130	2,195	₦18.4bn	₦17.8bn
Industrial	146	8	₦138m	₦138m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	20,048	2,046	₦16.7bn	₦16.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	223	153	₦1.81bn	₦1.65bn	51%	2.1 yr
SME High	5	4	₦7.31m	₦7.31m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	6,961	254	₦67m	₦67m
2.0	6,638	884	₦3.13bn	₦3.06bn
3.0	3,201	661	₦14.2bn	₦13.8bn
1.0	2,832	272	₦500m	₦498m
4.0	643	132	₦597m	₦585m
5.0	1	0	₦3.7m	₦3.7m