Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Bayelsa State: buildings, spend and payback

284,469 buildings in Bayelsa State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦406bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 22% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

284,469

Usable roof area

29.5 km²

6.63 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦406bn/yr

335 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bayelsa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦406bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦378bn

Lifetime cash saved₦19.5tn

NPV₦2.84tn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy206 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.24 GWp

Capex₦1.26tn

Year-one energy value₦915bn

Lifetime energy value₦42.6tn

NPV₦6.97tn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Bayelsa State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.24 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.26tn
Year 1 savings: ₦915bn/yr
NPV: ₦6.97tn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bayelsa State pays back quickly

Of the 281,266 buildings in Bayelsa State with a modelled payback, 69.8% pay back inside five years and 22.3% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

69.8%

Payback under 3 years

22.3%

IRR above 20%

73.2%

Under 3 years · 22%3 – 5 years · 48%5 – 7 years · 15%7 – 10 years · 6%Over 10 years · 10%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Bayelsa State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Bayelsa State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bayelsa State consume 669 GWh/yr but want 875 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 76%Suppressed · 24%

Energy wanted

875 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

669 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

206 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Bayelsa State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 281,266 buildings with a modelled result out of 284,469 in Bayelsa State. 238,601 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years62,604 (22%)

Under 5 years196,315 (70%)

Under 7 years238,081 (85%)

Under 10 years253,996 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%252,053 (89%)

Above 15%238,601 (84%)

Above 20%208,091 (73%)

Above 25%73,392 (26%)

Electricity billing bands in Bayelsa State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bayelsa State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	107,363	18,313	₦75.7bn	₦73.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	76,292	23,962	₦141bn	₦135bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	54,650	13,107	₦126bn	₦115bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	30,668	3,629	₦39.2bn	₦33.3bn	11%	6.9 yr
A	15,496	4,933	₦23.7bn	₦22bn	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	272,651	56,081	₦333bn	₦309bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	3,833	2,349	₦18.9bn	₦18.8bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	3,155	2,400	₦45.3bn	₦41.9bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	3,017	2,192	₦4.84bn	₦4.83bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,145	518	₦262m	₦262m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	321	154	₦2.1bn	₦1.96bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	144	108	₦1.19bn	₦1.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	115	95	₦117m	₦117m	53%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	47	24	₦91.2m	₦91.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	36	20	₦253m	₦250m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	5	3	₦6.17m	₦6.17m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	94,424	23,370	₦146bn	₦138bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	61,193	12,900	₦24.1bn	₦23.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	57,474	10,700	₦2.91bn	₦2.87bn	15%	6.9 yr
30 50m2	39,288	7,664	₦5.4bn	₦4.72bn	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	31,251	8,949	₦187bn	₦170bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	839	361	₦41.6bn	₦39.2bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	115,684	20,309	₦67.6bn	₦65.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	59,938	21,889	₦142bn	₦135bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	44,357	5,792	₦62.8bn	₦53.5bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	37,025	8,983	₦70.2bn	₦63.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	27,465	6,971	₦63.7bn	₦60.1bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	71,456	19,061	₦37.5bn	₦35.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	64,057	19,352	₦276bn	₦253bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	55,425	8,571	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Formal	43,449	5,454	₦9.59bn	₦9.56bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	29,421	2,741	₦7.37bn	₦7.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	7,224	729	₦914m	₦914m	25%	4.6 yr
Institutional	2,543	1,954	₦29.8bn	₦29.1bn	45%	2.4 yr
Duplex	1,616	170	₦415m	₦415m	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,354	818	₦6.84bn	₦6.83bn	39%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,222	588	₦330m	₦330m	33%	3.4 yr
Place Of Worship	1,110	785	₦781m	₦781m	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	1,073	841	₦7.08bn	₦7.08bn	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	280,069	62,515	₦393bn	₦366bn
Industrial	3,309	1,111	₦10.3bn	₦9.96bn
Commercial	536	177	₦2.04bn	₦2.02bn
Retail	293	29	₦433m	₦433m
Farmland	214	112	₦523m	₦504m
Farmyard	33	0	₦728k	₦728k
Orchard	15	0	₦324k	₦324k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	279,329	60,446	₦351bn	₦327bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	3,195	2,426	₦46bn	₦42.5bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	1,945	1,072	₦9.38bn	₦9.34bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	88,246	27,534	₦319bn	₦296bn
4.0	62,695	7,543	₦29.5bn	₦29.1bn
2.0	60,872	16,078	₦46.9bn	₦43.3bn
0.0	55,085	8,540	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn
1.0	17,047	4,053	₦5.53bn	₦4.68bn
5.0	417	161	₦3.01bn	₦2.93bn
6.0	107	35	₦832m	₦832m