Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Kolokuma/Opokuma, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Kolokuma/Opokuma has 12,046 buildings with a viable rooftop and 299 MWp of roof capacity. 40% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

12,046

Usable roof area

1.33 km²

299 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.2bn/yr

23.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kolokuma/Opokuma

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.28tn

NPV₦191bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy8.16 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity59.5 MWp

Capex₦60.2bn

Year-one energy value₦44.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.09tn

NPV₦343bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Kolokuma/Opokuma's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 59.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦60.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦44.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦343bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kolokuma/Opokuma pays back quickly

Of the 11,806 buildings in Kolokuma/Opokuma with a modelled payback, 75.9% pay back inside five years and 40.3% inside three.

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How much of Kolokuma/Opokuma's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kolokuma/Opokuma consume 38.8 GWh/yr but want 46.9 GWh/yr. The 17% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kolokuma/Opokuma

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kolokuma/Opokuma actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 11,806 buildings with a modelled result out of 12,046 in Kolokuma/Opokuma. 10,302 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,757 (40%)

Under 5 years8,961 (76%)

Under 7 years10,285 (87%)

Under 10 years10,814 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%10,756 (89%)

Above 15%10,302 (86%)

Above 20%9,309 (77%)

Above 25%5,726 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

41.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.16 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

91.1k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kolokuma/Opokuma.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Kolokuma/Opokuma

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	8,583	3,946	₦19.9bn	₦19.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	1,982	762	₦4.34bn	₦4.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	746	2	₦52.5m	₦52.5m	5%	15.4 yr
D	735	51	₦1.84bn	₦1.76bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	11,309	4,370	₦20.3bn	₦20bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	216	96	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	202	177	₦4.38bn	₦4.02bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	193	0	₦3.79m	₦3.79m	27%	3.9 yr
Worship	119	112	₦335m	₦335m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦37m	₦35.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦40.4m	₦37.6m	51%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦1m	₦1m	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	3,889	1,718	₦8.94bn	₦8.66bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	2,718	911	₦238m	₦234m	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	2,393	913	₦1.39bn	₦1.37bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,505	685	₦11.6bn	₦11.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	1,485	508	₦310m	₦309m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	56	26	₦3.64bn	₦3.56bn	25%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	8,073	3,521	₦16.9bn	₦16.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	1,637	742	₦6.37bn	₦5.98bn	29%	3.4 yr
Unclassified	1,609	156	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	727	342	₦1.3bn	₦1.28bn	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	3,423	1,560	₦2.24bn	₦2.22bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	3,304	1,310	₦16.1bn	₦15.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	2,240	419	₦76.9m	₦76.9m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,442	248	₦444m	₦444m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	900	833	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	193	0	₦3.79m	₦3.79m	27%	3.9 yr
Institutional	152	136	₦3.47bn	₦3.4bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	100	0	₦21.2m	₦21.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	80	71	₦630m	₦630m	67%	1.6 yr
School	71	62	₦357m	₦357m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	41	38	₦39.5m	₦39.5m	51%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	39	37	₦63.4m	₦63.4m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	12,008	4,761	₦26.1bn	₦25.4bn
Industrial	38	0	₦16.4m	₦16.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	11,736	4,578	₦21.7bn	₦21.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	206	180	₦4.42bn	₦4.06bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	104	3	₦62.7m	₦59.8m	33%	3.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	3,903	1,737	₦21bn	₦20.4bn
2.0	3,839	1,521	₦2.68bn	₦2.66bn
0.0	2,234	419	₦76.9m	₦76.9m
1.0	1,328	431	₦304m	₦281m
4.0	741	653	₦2.06bn	₦2.05bn
5.0	1	0	₦2.83m	₦2.83m