Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Sagbama, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Sagbama has 21,659 buildings with a viable rooftop and 530 MWp of roof capacity. 42% run a generator, and together they spend ₦69.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

21,659

Usable roof area

2.36 km²

530 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦69.8bn/yr

60.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sagbama

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦69.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦66.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.35tn

NPV₦507bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy21.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity157 MWp

Capex₦161bn

Year-one energy value₦129bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.04tn

NPV₦1tn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Sagbama's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 157 MWp
Capital cost: ₦161bn
Year 1 savings: ₦129bn/yr
NPV: ₦1tn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sagbama pays back quickly

Of the 21,424 buildings in Sagbama with a modelled payback, 81.8% pay back inside five years and 42.3% inside three.

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How much of Sagbama's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sagbama consume 95.9 GWh/yr but want 118 GWh/yr. The 19% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sagbama

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sagbama actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 21,424 buildings with a modelled result out of 21,659 in Sagbama. 19,107 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,052 (42%)

Under 5 years17,517 (82%)

Under 7 years19,092 (89%)

Under 10 years19,485 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,405 (90%)

Above 15%19,107 (88%)

Above 20%17,882 (83%)

Above 25%10,915 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

109 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

36.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

278k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sagbama.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sagbama

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	10,615	3,809	₦36.7bn	₦34bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	6,344	3,661	₦22.9bn	₦22.6bn	51%	2.1 yr
E	4,498	1,528	₦9.68bn	₦9.14bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	202	62	₦554m	₦513m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,554	8,071	₦60.5bn	₦57.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	378	361	₦5.67bn	₦5.27bn	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	327	302	₦776m	₦776m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	293	254	₦2.37bn	₦2.35bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	52	18	₦6.84m	₦6.84m	27%	3.9 yr
Industrial	22	21	₦287m	₦283m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	18	18	₦20m	₦20m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	13	13	₦21.2m	₦20.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦2.13m	₦2.13m	55%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦155m	₦155m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	7,690	3,542	₦27.6bn	₦26.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	4,442	1,772	₦3.84bn	₦3.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	4,313	1,437	₦516m	₦508m	19%	5.9 yr
30 50m2	2,695	1,028	₦871m	₦776m	25%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,435	1,226	₦31.3bn	₦28.6bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	84	55	₦5.67bn	₦5.65bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	8,907	4,903	₦35.2bn	₦34.3bn	51%	2.1 yr
Urban	4,619	1,335	₦13.9bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,078	983	₦9.74bn	₦8.66bn	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	3,379	1,516	₦8bn	₦7.95bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	676	323	₦2.98bn	₦2.49bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	7,594	3,347	₦7.13bn	₦6.95bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	7,343	3,276	₦52.1bn	₦49.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,378	1,095	₦202m	₦202m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Formal	813	1	₦144m	₦144m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	423	349	₦887m	₦887m	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	315	293	₦3.17bn	₦3.17bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	131	122	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn	69%	1.6 yr
School	114	112	₦587m	₦587m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	112	104	₦110m	₦110m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	110	101	₦140m	₦140m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	70	48	₦419m	₦405m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	70	36	₦26.9m	₦26.9m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	21,450	8,905	₦68bn	₦64.5bn
Industrial	209	155	₦1.75bn	₦1.74bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	21,186	8,627	₦63.3bn	₦60.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	388	370	₦5.93bn	₦5.52bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	85	63	₦608m	₦594m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	7,516	3,712	₦59bn	₦55.7bn
2.0	7,188	3,458	₦8.8bn	₦8.52bn
0.0	4,383	1,099	₦203m	₦203m
1.0	1,867	747	₦654m	₦620m
4.0	702	42	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn
5.0	3	2	₦124m	₦110m