Bayelsa State

Rooftop solar in Nembe, Bayelsa: what the roofs are worth

Nembe has 10,002 buildings with a viable rooftop and 180 MWp of roof capacity. 26% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

10,002

Usable roof area

804,242 m²

180 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.1bn/yr

19.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nembe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦23.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.16tn

NPV₦169bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy12.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity73.6 MWp

Capex₦75.5bn

Year-one energy value₦52.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.37tn

NPV₦386bn

Median IRR75%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Nembe's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 73.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦75.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦52.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦386bn
Median IRR: 75%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nembe pays back quickly

Of the 9,876 buildings in Nembe with a modelled payback, 64.4% pay back inside five years and 24.9% inside three.

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How much of Nembe's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nembe consume 45.2 GWh/yr but want 57.5 GWh/yr. The 21% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Nembe

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Nembe actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 9,876 buildings with a modelled result out of 10,002 in Nembe. 7,604 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,455 (25%)

Under 5 years6,364 (64%)

Under 7 years7,586 (77%)

Under 10 years8,187 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%8,121 (81%)

Above 15%7,604 (76%)

Above 20%6,656 (67%)

Above 25%2,653 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

41.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

200k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nembe.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Nembe

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	3,345	849	₦8.52bn	₦8.33bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	2,575	939	₦4.98bn	₦4.81bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	1,664	127	₦4.96bn	₦3.13bn	7%	15.1 yr
A	1,440	620	₦5.29bn	₦4.81bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	978	72	₦2.31bn	₦2.03bn	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,722	2,439	₦23.9bn	₦21bn	23%	4.6 yr
Anchor	151	98	₦1.62bn	₦1.59bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	85	51	₦476m	₦476m	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	40	17	₦26.7m	₦26.7m	31%	3.6 yr
Hospitality	3	1	₦20.3m	₦20.3m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦2.33m	₦1.17m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	2,609	490	₦124m	₦123m	15%	7.1 yr
100 250m2	2,420	869	₦8.69bn	₦8.19bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	2,303	525	₦1.73bn	₦1.67bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	1,905	371	₦301m	₦297m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	751	342	₦13.5bn	₦11.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	14	10	₦1.69bn	₦1.48bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	5,553	1,999	₦15.1bn	₦14.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	2,959	186	₦2.63bn	₦2.3bn	9%	9.9 yr
Rural	1,048	290	₦6.29bn	₦4.26bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	442	132	₦2.04bn	₦1.94bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	2,853	418	₦57.9m	₦57.9m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,758	650	₦1.6bn	₦1.58bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Small	2,284	639	₦2.31bn	₦2.15bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	1,827	732	₦20bn	₦17.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	95	56	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	59	37	₦303m	₦303m	55%	1.9 yr
School	46	30	₦168m	₦168m	55%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	23	15	₦279m	₦272m	37%	2.9 yr
Clinic	16	10	₦101m	₦95.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Place Of Worship	15	7	₦5.02m	₦5.02m	31%	3.4 yr
Worship Center	13	6	₦10.3m	₦10.3m	31%	3.4 yr
Hospital	4	3	₦93.9m	₦73.6m	41%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	9,867	2,549	₦25.5bn	₦22.6bn
Industrial	134	58	₦594m	₦525m
Farmland	1	0	₦7.93k	₦7.93k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	9,848	2,507	₦24.4bn	₦21.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	152	99	₦1.62bn	₦1.59bn	51%	2.1 yr
SME High	2	1	₦20.2m	₦20.2m	31%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	3,014	872	₦5.3bn	₦4.79bn
0.0	2,852	419	₦58m	₦58m
3.0	2,647	930	₦19.1bn	₦16.7bn
1.0	1,094	263	₦699m	₦687m
4.0	395	123	₦908m	₦904m